Dilution aware valuation math

Crypto market cap calculator

Price any token at another token's market capitalization, then see the same answer corrected for the supply that has not been issued yet.

The default pair is chosen from the snapshot at build time as the largest supply overhang in the measured leading ranks. In this build that is Hyperliquid, which circulates 23.3% of its eventual supply and carries a fully diluted valuation of 84.54B USD against a market capitalization of 19.68B USD.

Interactive tool

Price one token at another market cap

Token to reprice
Reference market cap
Target value

HYPE priced at BTC at 1,673.09B USD, shown twice. The first answer is the one the ranked calculators give. The second corrects for supply that has not been issued yet.

Circulating basis

Reference circulating market cap divided by the circulating supply of the token being repriced. Every ranked competitor stops here.

Implied price
$7,521.36
Multiple from today
85x
Implied rank
#1

Target value 1,673.09B USD divided by 222,445,714 tokens, taken from circulating supply.

Fully diluted basis

Reference fully diluted valuation divided by the eventual supply of the token being repriced. Only this version survives the supply schedule.

Implied price
$1,751.37
Multiple from today
19.8x
Implied rank
#2

Target value 1,673.09B USD divided by 955,307,079 tokens, taken from total supply.

Dilution haircut

76.7%

The fully diluted answer sits 76.7% lower than the circulating answer, because the token being repriced still has supply to issue. Sites that print only the circulating figure never show this gap.

Circulating share of each side

HYPE circulating share
23.3% of total supply

Fully diluted valuation 84.54B USD against market cap 19.68B USD

BTC circulating share
100.0% of total supply

Overhang 1x of circulating market cap

Early Thunder research overlay

Dated research snapshot,

HYPE priced side

Score
193 of 250
Verdict
HOLD CORE
Unlock schedule
5 of 10
Circulating to FDV
4 of 10

BTC reference side

Score
183 of 250
Verdict
HOLD CORE
Unlock schedule
10 of 10
Circulating to FDV
9 of 10

These are fundamentals scores recorded on the stated date, not live values and not a forecast. A higher unlock schedule sub score means less supply still to be issued.

This answer assumes the target valuation is reached with no other token moving, that supply arrives exactly as the reported total or maximum supply says, and that a buyer exists at every price on the way. None of the three is a safe assumption, and the calculation says nothing about whether the market would ever pay that price.

Every figure comes from the snapshot embedded in this page at build time, fetched . The browser makes no market data request.

The number the ranked calculators do not print

On the build default pair the circulating answer is $7,521.36 and the fully diluted answer is $1,751.37. That is a dilution haircut of 76.7%. The circulating answer would put HYPE at rank #1 in the snapshot, the fully diluted answer at rank #2.

How the comparison is calculated

A market capitalization is a price multiplied by the number of tokens in circulation. Nothing else goes into it. It is not money that went into the asset, it is not a measure of how much could be sold, and it carries no information about how deep the order book is at that price.

Every ranked calculator for this query runs the same single line. Take the price of the token you hold, multiply by the market capitalization of the token you are comparing against, divide by the market capitalization of the token you hold. What comes out is the price your token would trade at if its circulating supply were suddenly worth the same total as the other token is worth today.

That is a correct calculation of a narrow thing, and this page computes it too. Priced that way, HYPE at the market capitalization of BTC comes out at $7,521.36, which is 85x its price in the snapshot. The problem is that it is only half of an honest answer, because the circulating supply on either side of the pair is a snapshot of a schedule that is still running.

Market cap = price x circulating supply
Circulating answer = reference market cap ÷ circulating supply
Fully diluted answer = reference FDV ÷ eventual supply
Dilution haircut = 1 − (diluted answer ÷ circulating answer)

The dilution correction

A token that has issued a fifth of its eventual supply is not the same asset as a token that has issued all of it, even when the two report the same market capitalization today. The first one has four fifths of its tokens still to arrive, held by teams, early backers and treasuries on a vesting calendar. The second one has none.

Run the standard formula on the first token and the answer is quietly wrong. It spreads the reference valuation across today's float only, so it prints a price that assumes the remaining tokens never show up. They do show up. When they do, the same total valuation has to be divided across a much larger number of tokens, and the price per token falls in proportion.

The correction is to run the comparison a second time on a fully diluted basis. The reference token's fully diluted valuation is divided by the eventual supply of the token being repriced. Both sides are then measured on the same footing, and the gap between the two answers is the dilution haircut. A positive haircut means the standard calculators are printing a number that is too high. A negative haircut means the reference token itself is the one with the larger supply overhang, which pushes the honest answer above the standard one instead.

Neither answer is a forecast. The fully diluted figure is not a prediction that the price will fall to it, and the circulating figure is not a prediction that the price will rise to it. Both are arithmetic on today's reported supply, and both are shown so the size of the assumption is visible instead of buried.

Where the token has been through Early Thunder's own research pass, the page also shows the two sub scores that speak directly to this. 109 of the 249 tokens in the live snapshot carry a research row. The rest are marked as not scored, and no number is invented for them. Read the scoring framework on the methodology page, or the full ranking on the scorecard.

Computed at build time

Where the standard answer is most wrong

These are the largest supply overhangs inside the measured leading ranks of the snapshot, sorted by fully diluted valuation as a multiple of circulating market capitalization. Each row is priced at BTC on both bases, so the haircut column is the exact percentage by which a circulating only calculator overstates the implied price for that token.

The last three columns come from the dated research file. The unlock schedule and circulating to fully diluted sub scores are each rated out of 10, recorded on 2026-09-18, and a token with no research row is shown as not scored.

TokenMarket capFDV multipleCirculating shareHaircutUnlock scheduleCirc to FDVVerdict
HYPE19.68B USD4.29x23.3%76.7%5 of 104 of 10HOLD CORE
LIT877.27M USD4x25.0%75.0%2 of 103 of 10WATCH
STABLE720.97M USD3.7x27.0%73.0%Not scoredNot scoredNot scored
BTW3.35B USD3.69x27.1%72.9%Not scoredNot scoredNot scored
WLFI1.73B USD3.15x31.8%68.2%Not scoredNot scoredNot scored
ASTER1.93B USD2.87x34.8%65.2%Not scoredNot scoredNot scored
WLD1.96B USD2.63x38.0%62.0%1 of 101 of 10PASS
ZRO850.1M USD2.51x39.9%60.1%1 of 102 of 10WATCH
WBT9.84B USD2.47x40.5%59.5%Not scoredNot scoredNot scored
SUI4.62B USD2.43x41.2%58.8%2 of 103 of 10HOLD

A large haircut is not by itself a reason to avoid a token. It is a statement that the headline comparison you were shown elsewhere has an unpriced assumption inside it. What the supply release is worth depends on who receives it and whether they sell, which is what the research sub scores try to capture and what the arithmetic cannot.

Where this calculation breaks

Matching a market capitalization says nothing about whether the market would ever pay it. The formula moves a price to satisfy an equation. It contains no view on demand, on the product, on the team, or on whether anyone would bid. A token can be arithmetically capable of a valuation and never reach it.

Liquidity is not modelled anywhere in this page. Reaching a target valuation requires buyers absorbing supply at every price in between, and thin books mean the marginal trade that sets the last price is nothing like the size that would be needed to hold it. A market capitalization can be moved a long way by a small amount of real money in an illiquid asset, in both directions.

The implied rank assumes every other token's market capitalization stays exactly where it is. In practice a move large enough to change a token's rank is usually happening in a market where the rest of the list is moving too, so treat the rank as a position in the list as it stands right now rather than a place the token would land.

Supply schedules can move the answer more than the price does. A token that doubles its float over a year has to double its total valuation just to hold the same price, and no price chart shows that on its own. Two tokens carrying the same market capitalization are not comparable assets, and the supply schedule is the single largest reason why.

Reported supply is a provider figure, not a chain measurement made here. Total supply, maximum supply and fully diluted valuation are taken as published, and some tokens report none of the three. Where that happens the fully diluted lane prints not available rather than a guess. Burns, rebases, bridged wrappers and treasury holdings all make the same reported number mean different things across projects.

Finally, the comparison is a snapshot. Prices moved while this page was being generated and they are moving now. For fee aware trade math on a position you actually hold, use the crypto profit calculator. For the tokens where the research pass found something worth reading, start at opportunities.

Dated source check

Market cap build snapshot

Fetched

The build fetched and checked these values before writing the static page. The browser calculator reads the embedded snapshot and makes no market data request of its own.

Tokens in the snapshot
249
Flagged stablecoins
37
Rows cross checked
184
Worst price spread
0.899%
Rows dropped in validation
1
Tokens with a research row
109

Provider checks

CoinGecko supplied every displayed row, including price, market capitalization, circulating supply, total supply, maximum supply and fully diluted valuation. CoinPaprika supplied an independent price for each symbol it also lists, and the widest disagreement across those matched symbols is shown above. Rows that failed range validation were dropped rather than repaired.

Research file updated , a dated snapshot and not a live figure

About the author

Built and checked by Michael Lip

Michael Lip builds and operates the Early Thunder research engine end to end. He wrote this calculator because every ranked tool for the question answers it on circulating supply alone, which is the one assumption that most often makes the answer wrong. View his GitHub profile.

Site-wide disclosures

  • Research and data analysis only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
  • Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the entire amount you put in.
  • Scores measure fundamentals as recorded on the stated date. They do not predict price.
  • Every figure carries the timestamp it was fetched. Prices move continuously and the number on the page may already be out of date.
  • The operator may hold positions in assets covered on this site. See the portfolio page.