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Research notes, methodology updates, and analysis. 72 posts published.

The 2022 Crypto Contagion: How 6 Dominoes Erased $2.1 Trillion in 7 Months

Between May and November 2022, six interconnected institutions collapsed in sequence, destroying $2.1 trillion in total crypto market cap and wiping out an estimated $200 billion in direct customer losses. This was not a market cycle. It was a systemic failure caused by hidden counterparty risk, uncollateralized lending, and the same customer deposits being counted multiple times across multiple balance sheets.

contagion-2022lunathree-arrows-capitalcelsiusvoyagerftxblockfigenesissystemic-riskcounterparty-riskcrypto-graveyardmarket-intelligencebear-market
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Lazarus Group, How North Korea Stole $3.8B in Crypto

Lazarus Group is the most prolific theft operation in the history of financial crime. The North Korean state-sponsored hacking collective has stolen more than $3.8 billion in cryptocurrency since 2016, with a single 2025 attack netting $1.4 billion, more than any previous hack in history. This is how they operate and why they keep winning.

lazarus-groupnorth-koreabybit-hackronin-bridgecrypto-securityexchange-hackbridge-exploitdmm-bitcoinwazirxmarket-intelligencerisk-management
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FTX Collapse: How a $32 Billion Valuation Became a 25-Year Prison Sentence in 10 Months

In January 2022, FTX was the most trusted name in crypto with a $32 billion valuation, celebrity endorsements, and a Super Bowl ad. By November 11, 2022, it was bankrupt with $8 billion missing from customer accounts. Sam Bankman-Fried is now serving 25 years. This is the complete ledger of how it happened.

ftxsbfsam-bankman-friedalameda-researchfttcrypto-graveyardfraudexchange-riskcontagion-2022market-intelligencedue-diligence
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LUNA and UST Collapse, How $60 Billion Vanished in 72 Hours

In May 2022, Terra's algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its dollar peg and triggered the fastest large-scale financial collapse in recorded history. LUNA fell from $119 to $0.00001 in six days. Understanding the mechanism is not optional, it is the single most important case study for anyone deploying capital in crypto.

lunaustterraalgorithmic-stablecoindo-kwonanchor-protocoldeath-spiralcrypto-graveyardcontagion-2022stablecoinmarket-intelligence
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CoW Protocol: The Only DEX That Cannot Be Front-Run, Net-Deflationary by Design

COW scores 71/100 in our pipeline at $0.165 and a $94M market cap against $8M in annual revenue. The revenue base is small, but Revenue Trend scores 9/10, the highest growth rate among all protocols in the scan. CoW Protocol's batch auction mechanism is the only DEX architecture that structurally eliminates MEV extraction, and that moat cannot be replicated by traditional AMMs.

CoW ProtocolCOWMEV protectionbatch auctionsDEXDeFinet-deflationaryEthereum
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Lido's Fee Switch: A Binary Catalyst on 28% of All Staked ETH

LDO scores 72/100 in our pipeline at $0.358 and a $300M market cap. Lido controls 28% of all staked Ethereum and generates $40.5M in annual revenue from staking fees. The token currently receives zero of that revenue. An expected fee switch in H2 2026 would change that binary fact and potentially reprice LDO from a governance token to a yield-bearing asset.

LidoLDOliquid stakingstETHEthereumfee switchDeFistakingcatalyst
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THORChain RUNE: $118B Lifetime Volume and the Only Native Cross-Chain DEX

RUNE scores 73/100 in our pipeline at a price of $0.453 and a $156M market cap against $36M in annual revenue. THORChain has processed $118B in lifetime cross-chain volume, a number that would be impressive for any protocol and is extraordinary for one doing native swaps without bridges or wrapping. The competitive moat is among the strongest we have scored.

THORChainRUNEcross-chainDEXBTC DeFinative swapsDeFicompetitive moat
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Good Protocols, Worthless Tokens: The Value Capture Gap That Destroys Investor Returns

Sprint 21 delivered the cleanest lesson in due diligence methodology since the pipeline launched: an excellent protocol can have a worthless token. The two are not the same thing. KMNO, COMP, and SSV are three of the best examples of this phenomenon, protocols with genuine utility, real users, and tokens that structurally cannot return value to holders.

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The 25-Variable Scoring Framework: How We Quantify What Most Research Leaves Qualitative

Every research process has hidden assumptions. Ours are explicit. The 25-variable scoring framework forces every token through the same 100-point evaluation across five categories, with no narrative exceptions and no momentum adjustments. ETH scores 79. HYPE scores 76. ZRO scores 33, which is a sell regardless of how many people are talking about it.

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The 500-Token Kill Filter: How We Screened 468 Binance Tokens and Found 18 Worth Owning

Most research processes in crypto are backward. They start with a token someone is already excited about and look for reasons to buy it. We built the kill filter to invert that process entirely. You start with the full universe, apply objective criteria in sequence, and accept whatever survives, even if it is nothing. The 500-token scan returned 18 survivors from 468 inputs. That is the honest answer to the question of how many Binance-listed tokens are worth holding.

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Sprint 21: Why Excellent Protocols Can Have Worthless Tokens

Sprint 21 verified Kamino Finance (KMNO) and discovered the value accrual gap. The V-agent methodology now tests token-level economics independently of protocol quality. Hit rate: 9.1% of opportunities survive verification. DOLO killed (single counterparty). GNS trimmed (180d market share decline).

verificationdue-diligencesprint-21kamino-financekmnodologains-networkv-agentmethodologytoken-economicsmarket-intelligence
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