Crypto risk reward calculator with fees

A raw ratio computed from prices alone overstates the trade. Fees are paid on both legs whether the trade wins or loses, so they shrink the gain and enlarge the loss. For tight targets and tight stops, fees can move the ratio materially. This model charges the entry fee on the full position value, the exit fee on the value at the target for the gain side, and the value at the stop for the loss side.

Spread, slippage, funding, and taxes are outside the formula. In fast markets, both the stop and the target can fill away from their trigger prices, changing the realized ratio.

The ratio alone does not say whether a strategy is profitable, because it depends on how often trades win. The break-even win rate is the share of winning trades at which expected profit is exactly zero: losing more often than that loses money on average, and winning more often makes money, holding the ratio constant. A 2:1 ratio needs to win about a third of the time; a 1:1 ratio needs about half.

Real strategies rarely hit the exact target or the exact stop on every trade. Partial exits, trailing stops, and time-based exits all move the realized distribution away from this two-outcome model, so the break-even rate is a planning anchor rather than a performance guarantee.

This calculator models exactly two outcomes: a fill at the target or a fill at the stop. Positions closed early, gaps that jump the stop, and markets that move sideways to expiry are all outside the model. A high ratio paired with a low win rate can still be a losing strategy after costs if the assumptions do not hold.

Risk of ruin, correlated positions, and capital constraints are portfolio-level concerns that a single-trade ratio cannot capture. Aggregate exposure still needs separate limits.