Arweave (AR)
Permanent data storage with one-time payment model. AO compute layer adds programmability. 65M+ items stored but token price lags data growth.
Ranked 32nd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
AR scores 140 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 32nd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
AR is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Supply Inflation 8/10, 8th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 9/10, 10th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251.
Against the same universe, AR sits in the bottom third on Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
99.5% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for AR. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
AR trades 98% below its all-time high of $89.24. Recovering that level is a 50x move, not a 98% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 22 points against the previous pass (118 to 140). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$65.00B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 5 | 37th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 4 | 82nd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 8 | 8th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 8 | 21st of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 9 | 10th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 5 | 30th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 4 | 157th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
AO (Actor Oriented) parallel computing layer turning Arweave into compute network
Principal risk
Storage endowment model relies on AR price assumptions; 83% below ATH; small network
Market and supply
| Price | $1.81 |
| Market cap | $118.6Mrank 229 |
| All-time high | $89.245 Nov 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 65,652,466 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 66,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.01x |
| Total value locked | $65.00B |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate.io |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to AR measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [ViewBlock] Arweave has permanently stored over 65M transactions and files on its permaweb
- [Arweave] AO parallel compute layer launched on Arweave enabling actor-model programming
- [Arweave Yellow Paper] Arweave storage endowment model assumes AR price appreciation to cover perpetual storage
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Arweave (AR)?
- AR scores 140 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 32nd of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are AR's strongest fundamentals?
- AR ranks highest on Supply Inflation 8/10, 8th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 9/10, 10th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the AR thesis?
- AR scores in the bottom third of the universe on Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Storage endowment model relies on AR price assumptions; 83% below ATH; small network
- How much AR supply is still to enter circulation?
- 99.5% of eventual AR supply is circulating today, leaving 1.01x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is AR from its all-time high?
- AR trades 98% below its all-time high of $89.24. Returning to that high requires a 50x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to AR?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AR are SHDW (103), TRU (102), NMR (98) and SLND (106). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for AR?
- AO (Actor Oriented) parallel computing layer turning Arweave into compute network
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.