CAUTIOUS HOLD

Orca (ORCA)

Concentrated liquidity DEX on Solana. Whirlpools with user-friendly UX.

Ranked 56th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
123/250
56th of 251
Percentile
78.1%
of the rated universe
Circulating
60.8%
39.2% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-94.7%
18.9x to recover
SolanaSPL+123 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

ORCA scores 123 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 56th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

The score rests on Active Users 6/10, 24th of 251, Team Execution 6/10, 30th of 251, TVL Trend 5/10, 30th of 251 and Network Growth 6/10, 32nd of 251.

Only 60.8% of ORCA's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.64x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 39.2% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

ORCA trades 94.7% below its all-time high of $20.33. Recovering that level is a 18.9x move, not a 94.7% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 123 points against the previous pass (0 to 123). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
537th of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
538th of 251
Real Staking Yield
482nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
561st of 251
Vesting Schedule
659th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
5135th of 251
Buyback and Burn
363rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
548th of 251
Insider Selling
542nd of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
530th of 251
Active Users
624th of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
632nd of 251

Position

Position variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
552nd of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
3115th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
541st of 251

Risk

Risk variables for ORCA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
5102nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
550th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
445th of 251
Team Execution
630th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Catalyst on the scorecard

Orca's concentrated liquidity v3 launch on Solana mainnet in March 2025, targeting 2x TVL growth.

The March 2025 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 11 Jun 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Principal risk

Solana network outage lasting >4 hours (as in Feb 2023) halts all Orca trading and liquidity.

04

Market and supply

Price$1.08
Market cap$65.9Mrank 340
All-time high$20.332 Oct 2021
Circulating supply60,798,779
Eventual supply (max supply)100,000,000
Dilution to full supply1.64x
Listed onBinance, Kraken, Gate.io

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to ORCA measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Orca (ORCA)?
ORCA scores 123 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 56th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are ORCA's strongest fundamentals?
ORCA ranks highest on Active Users 6/10, 24th of 251, Team Execution 6/10, 30th of 251, TVL Trend 5/10, 30th of 251 and Network Growth 6/10, 32nd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
How much ORCA supply is still to enter circulation?
60.8% of eventual ORCA supply is circulating today, leaving 1.64x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 39.2% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is ORCA from its all-time high?
ORCA trades 94.7% below its all-time high of $20.33. Returning to that high requires a 18.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to ORCA?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ORCA are TNSR (112), MNDE (119), STG (117) and MAV (121). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What catalyst was ORCA scored against?
Orca's concentrated liquidity v3 launch on Solana mainnet in March 2025, targeting 2x TVL growth. This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The March 2025 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.