Raydium (RAY)
Cyclical memecoin infrastructure. Revenue collapsed 76% from peak. PumpSwap forking the model.
Ranked 46th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
RAY scores 129 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 46th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
RAY is a top-10 name in the set on 3 variables. The score rests on Vesting Schedule 9/10, 8th of 251, Active Users 7/10, 8th of 251, Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251 and Buyback and Burn 7/10, 13th of 251.
Against the same universe, RAY sits in the bottom third on Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 48.5% of RAY's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.06x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 51.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
RAY trades 96.3% below its all-time high of $16.83. Recovering that level is a 27x move, not a 96.3% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 129 points against the previous pass (0 to 129). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$1.00B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 6 | 23rd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 4 | 82nd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 7 | 26th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 9 | 8th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 6 | 88th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 7 | 13th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 4 | 93rd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 5 | 30th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 5 | 83rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 4 | 114th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 3 | 115th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 5 | 73rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 3 | 237th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 4 | 90th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 3 | 114th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 5 | 74th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 5 | 74th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Solana memecoin cycle revival could 3-5x volume overnight
Principal risk
PumpSwap directly forked revenue model, anonymous team, Q1 2026 revenue -76% from Q3 2025
Market and supply
| Price | $0.6178 |
| Market cap | $166.4Mrank 180 |
| All-time high | $16.8312 Sept 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 269,313,892 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 555,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 2.06x |
| Total value locked | $1.00B |
| Listed on | Binance, MEXC, Gate.io |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to RAY measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [Blockworks] Q1 2026 revenue $5.79M (-76% from Q3 2025 peak $24.3M)
- [Raydium Docs] 25% of trading fees fund RAY buybacks, $196M cumulativelink dead, claim unverified
- [Cointelegraph] PumpSwap directly forked Raydium's liquidity model
- [CryptoSlate] Anonymous team, no public roadmap or regular communication
One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Raydium (RAY)?
- RAY scores 129 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 46th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
- What are RAY's strongest fundamentals?
- RAY ranks highest on Vesting Schedule 9/10, 8th of 251, Active Users 7/10, 8th of 251, Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251 and Buyback and Burn 7/10, 13th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the RAY thesis?
- RAY scores in the bottom third of the universe on Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: PumpSwap directly forked revenue model, anonymous team, Q1 2026 revenue -76% from Q3 2025
- How much RAY supply is still to enter circulation?
- 48.5% of eventual RAY supply is circulating today, leaving 2.06x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 51.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is RAY from its all-time high?
- RAY trades 96.3% below its all-time high of $16.83. Returning to that high requires a 27x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to RAY?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to RAY are HT (98), BGB (135), MX (94) and BANANA (135). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for RAY?
- Solana memecoin cycle revival could 3-5x volume overnight
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.