Bitcoin (BTC)
Digital gold with a large spot ETF complex and 94.5% supply mined. Store-of-value thesis intact, though ETF assets fell through 2026.
Ranked 4th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
BTC scores 183 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 4th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
BTC is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Supply Inflation 10/10, 1st of 251, Vesting Schedule 10/10, 1st of 251, Smart Money Flows 10/10, 1st of 251 and Market Share 10/10, 1st of 251.
Against the same universe, BTC sits in the bottom third on Real Staking Yield 1/10, 226th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and P/S Multiple 3/10, 182nd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
95.7% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for BTC. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
BTC is 34% off its all-time high of $126,080, a 1.5x round trip from here.
BTC's strengths split in two. Active Users, Market Share, Institutional Adoption, Exchange Depth and 2 more are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule and Insider Selling are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it. Its weaknesses sit in P/S Multiple, Buyback and Burn and Real Staking Yield, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 5 | 37th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 3 | 182nd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 1 | 226th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 9 | 10th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 6 | 1st of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 3 | 111th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 7 | 12th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 10 | 1st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 5 | 13th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 9 | 1st of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
Spot ETF AUM about $78B after record 2026 outflows, down from a $169.5B peak in October 2025
The October 2025 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Regulatory crackdown on self-custody; long-term quantum computing threat
Market and supply
| Price | $83,220 |
| Market cap | $1.67Trank 1 |
| All-time high | $126,0806 Oct 2025 |
| Circulating supply | 20,094,800 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 21,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.05x |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to BTC measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
BTC compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [Bloomberg] Bitcoin spot ETF AUM peaked at $169.5B in October 2025 and fell to about $77.6B by June 2026
- [BitcoinBlockHalf] Mining reward halved to 3.125 BTC per block in April 2024
- [MicroStrategy IR] Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 840,447 BTC as of 9 August 2026
- [CoinDesk] Bitcoin ETFs are no bigger today than when Trump won the election, after record 2026 outflows
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Bitcoin (BTC)?
- BTC scores 183 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 4th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
- What are BTC's strongest fundamentals?
- BTC ranks highest on Supply Inflation 10/10, 1st of 251, Vesting Schedule 10/10, 1st of 251, Smart Money Flows 10/10, 1st of 251 and Market Share 10/10, 1st of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the BTC thesis?
- BTC scores in the bottom third of the universe on Real Staking Yield 1/10, 226th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and P/S Multiple 3/10, 182nd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Regulatory crackdown on self-custody; long-term quantum computing threat
- How much BTC supply is still to enter circulation?
- 95.7% of eventual BTC supply is circulating today, leaving 1.05x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 4.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is BTC from its all-time high?
- BTC trades 34% below its all-time high of $126,080. Returning to that high requires a 1.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to BTC?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to BTC are QNT (116), GTC (106), PENGU (104) and RENDER (127). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was BTC scored against?
- Spot ETF AUM about $78B after record 2026 outflows, down from a $169.5B peak in October 2025 This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The October 2025 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.