CAUTIOUS HOLD

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

46M MAU, $117M TVL. P/S 32-38x (not 290x, post-Intents revenue). AI Intents already live.

Ranked 39th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
135/250
39th of 251
Percentile
84.9%
of the rated universe
Circulating
100%
0% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-91.8%
12.2x to recover
NEARNative L1+82 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

NEAR scores 135 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 39th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

NEAR is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Insider Selling 7/10, 8th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251.

100% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for NEAR. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.

NEAR trades 91.8% below its all-time high of $20.44. Recovering that level is a 12.2x move, not a 91.8% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 82 points against the previous pass (53 to 135). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$117.0M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 18.73 dollars of token market cap.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
398th of 251
Revenue Trend
615th of 251
P/S Multiple
538th of 251
Real Staking Yield
482nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
561st of 251
Vesting Schedule
659th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
746th of 251
Buyback and Burn
363rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
548th of 251
Insider Selling
78th of 251
Holder Concentration
510th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
465th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
81st of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
552nd of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
541st of 251

Risk

Risk variables for NEAR, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
717th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
83rd of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
3114th of 251
Team Execution
630th of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

AI Confidential Intents LIVE (not Q3-Q4 future), revenue improving

Principal risk

32-38x P/S still expensive, $117M TVL vs $1.9B mcap gap

04

Market and supply

Price$1.68
Market cap$2.19Brank 39
All-time high$20.4416 Jan 2022
Circulating supply1,302,845,754
Eventual supply (total supply)1,302,873,350
Dilution to full supply1x
Total value locked$117.0M
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, OKX

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to NEAR measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for NEAR Protocol (NEAR)?
NEAR scores 135 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 39th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are NEAR's strongest fundamentals?
NEAR ranks highest on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Insider Selling 7/10, 8th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
How much NEAR supply is still to enter circulation?
100% of eventual NEAR supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is NEAR from its all-time high?
NEAR trades 91.8% below its all-time high of $20.44. Returning to that high requires a 12.2x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to NEAR?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to NEAR are GOG (86), PEAQ (88), CTSI (96) and FET (109). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for NEAR?
AI Confidential Intents LIVE (not Q3-Q4 future), revenue improving

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.