NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
43.7% of supply staked across 417 validators. TVL $185M (+58% since June). Buyback-issuance crossover claimed at revenue.near.org, gas fees still tiny.
Ranked 39th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
NEAR scores 135 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 39th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
NEAR is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Insider Selling 7/10, 8th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251.
100% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for NEAR. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
NEAR is 75.2% off its all-time high of $20.44, a 4x round trip from here.
The framework score gained 82 points against the previous pass (53 to 135). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$184.9M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 35.88 dollars of token market cap.
NEAR's strengths split in two. Catalyst Calendar are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Insider Selling are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it. Its weaknesses sit in Buyback and Burn, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 3 | 98th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 6 | 15th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 4 | 82nd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 5 | 61st of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 6 | 59th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 7 | 46th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 3 | 63rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 5 | 48th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 4 | 65th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 7 | 12th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 5 | 36th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 5 | 73rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 7 | 17th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 3 | 114th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
nearcore 2.9.0 halving upgrade (max inflation 5%->2.5%), Agent Market 2.0 Q3, Bitwise NEAR Strategy ETF S-1 filed
Principal risk
Chain gas fees ~$2-3.2k/day vs $4.7B mcap; TVL/mcap ratio 4%; buyback crossover still protocol-claimed not audited
Market and supply
| Price | $5.07 |
| Market cap | $6.64Brank 21 |
| All-time high | $20.4416 Jan 2022 |
| Circulating supply | 1,308,316,925 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 1,308,343,416 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1x |
| Total value locked | $184.9M |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to NEAR measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
NEAR compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [CoinGecko API] Price $3.59, mcap $4.68B, rank 24, supply 1.3067B (2026-09-18)
- [DefiLlama] Chain TVL $184.9M
- [NEARBlocks + NEAR mainnet RPC validator stake queries] 417 validators, 571.4M NEAR staked (43.7% of circulating)
- [DefiLlama fees] Chain gas fees ~$2-3.2k/day, $58k/30d
- [NEAR Foundation] Halving upgrade: max inflation 5% -> 2.5%
- [NEAR revenue dashboard] Buybacks via near.com fees, approaching issuance crossover
- [SVRN / Bitwise] Bitwise NEAR Staking ETP, 3.08% net staking yield
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for NEAR Protocol (NEAR)?
- NEAR scores 135 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 39th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
- What are NEAR's strongest fundamentals?
- NEAR ranks highest on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Insider Selling 7/10, 8th of 251 and Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- How much NEAR supply is still to enter circulation?
- 100% of eventual NEAR supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is NEAR from its all-time high?
- NEAR trades 75.2% below its all-time high of $20.44. Returning to that high requires a 4x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to NEAR?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to NEAR are GOG (86), PEAQ (88), CTSI (96) and FET (109). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for NEAR?
- nearcore 2.9.0 halving upgrade (max inflation 5%->2.5%), Agent Market 2.0 Q3, Bitwise NEAR Strategy ETF S-1 filed
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.