THORChain (RUNE)
Protocol HALTED 30 days. $10.8M exploit. $200M lending default. $1.2B Lazarus laundering. -98.2% ATH. Bug bounty killed.
Ranked 110th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
RUNE scores 106 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 110th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is PASS.
RUNE is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Vesting Schedule 8/10, 21st of 251, Insider Selling 6/10, 21st of 251 and Supply Inflation 7/10, 26th of 251.
Against the same universe, RUNE sits in the bottom third on Regulatory Safety 1/10, 251st of 251, Institutional Adoption 1/10, 238th of 251, Active Users 2/10, 220th of 251 and Team Execution 3/10, 208th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
95.5% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for RUNE. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
RUNE trades 97.9% below its all-time high of $20.87. Recovering that level is a 47.6x move, not a 97.9% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score lost 42 points against the previous pass (148 to 106). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$380.0M sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 5 | 37th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 3 | 117th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 4 | 104th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 5 | 37th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 7 | 26th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 8 | 21st of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 8 | 27th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 4 | 40th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 3 | 149th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 2 | 189th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 2 | 220th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 5 | 83rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 4 | 100th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 1 | 238th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 4 | 157th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 4 | 86th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 1 | 251st of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 5 | 50th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 2 | 200th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 3 | 208th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 4 | 181st of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
v3.19 restart + Monero integration + Rujira app layer + Solana volume corridor
Principal risk
OFAC sanction risk from $1.2B Lazarus laundering. Third exploit = terminal. $200M lawsuit pending. TCY 10% revenue tax.
Market and supply
| Price | $0.4452 |
| Market cap | $150.5Mrank 193 |
| All-time high | $20.8718 May 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 338,145,741 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 354,066,485 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.05x |
| Total value locked | $380.0M |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Bybit, Kraken |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to RUNE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [TRM Labs] Protocol HALTED since May 15, 2026. $10.8M exploit across 9 chains via GG20 TSS vulnerability
- [CoinDesk] $1.2B Lazarus Group funds laundered through THORChain (Feb 2025). $5.5M fees earned.
- [MIT Technology Review] Treasury Dept official: 'anybody making fees on Lazarus flows potentially has an OFAC issue'
- [The Block] $200M THORFi lending default (Jan 2025). Savers+Lending permanently deprecated. TCY tokens issued.
- [Crypto.news] Core developer 'Pluto' resigned over refusal to block Lazarus transactions (Feb 27, 2025)
- [The Defiant] Bug bounty program permanently retired Mar 2026. V12 reported critical bug Apr 28, patched silently, not paid.
- [DefiLlama] TVL collapsed $329M→$50M (-85%). LPs locked during halt. Savers deprecated.
- [Yahoo Finance] Q1 2026 swap volume $2.82B. Jan $1.07B, Feb $882M. Revenue $11M annualized pre-halt.
- [Cryptopolitan] TCY: 200M tokens, 10% perpetual revenue share to creditors. Price ~$0.09-0.14.
- [THORChain Docs] ADR-023 reduced max supply from 500M to 360M RUNE. Block rewards zeroed Feb 2025.
- [THORChain Dev Docs] ADR-17 burn: 5% of fees burned. 1.82M RUNE total burned (~$693K).
- [Chainflip Blog] Chainflip: $583M monthly volume Nov 2025. JIT AMM / USDC-settlement model growing.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for THORChain (RUNE)?
- RUNE scores 106 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 110th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is PASS.
- What are RUNE's strongest fundamentals?
- RUNE ranks highest on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Vesting Schedule 8/10, 21st of 251, Insider Selling 6/10, 21st of 251 and Supply Inflation 7/10, 26th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the RUNE thesis?
- RUNE scores in the bottom third of the universe on Regulatory Safety 1/10, 251st of 251, Institutional Adoption 1/10, 238th of 251, Active Users 2/10, 220th of 251 and Team Execution 3/10, 208th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: OFAC sanction risk from $1.2B Lazarus laundering. Third exploit = terminal. $200M lawsuit pending. TCY 10% revenue tax.
- How much RUNE supply is still to enter circulation?
- 95.5% of eventual RUNE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.05x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 4.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is RUNE from its all-time high?
- RUNE trades 97.9% below its all-time high of $20.87. Returning to that high requires a 47.6x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to RUNE?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to RUNE are FARM (93), YFI (111), SNX (130) and MCB (76). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for RUNE?
- v3.19 restart + Monero integration + Rujira app layer + Solana volume corridor
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.