CAUTIOUS HOLD

XRP (XRP)

Ripple's payment token with SEC case mostly resolved. Institutional cross-border payment rails narrative intact but XRPL DeFi negligible.

Ranked 63rd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
121/250
63rd of 251
Percentile
75.3%
of the rated universe
Circulating
62.5%
37.5% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-71.3%
3.5x to recover
XRP LedgerNative L1-10 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

XRP scores 121 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 63rd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

XRP is a top-10 name in the set on 3 variables. The score rests on Exchange Depth 9/10, 3rd of 251, Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Institutional Adoption 8/10, 9th of 251 and Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251.

Against the same universe, XRP sits in the bottom third on Real Staking Yield 1/10, 226th of 251, P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251, Vesting Schedule 3/10, 204th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 62.5% of XRP's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.6x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 37.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

XRP is 71.3% off its all-time high of $3.65, a 3.5x round trip from here.

The framework score lost 10 points against the previous pass (131 to 121). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$95.0M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 689.69 dollars of token market cap.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
398th of 251
Revenue Trend
471st of 251
P/S Multiple
2218th of 251
Real Staking Yield
1226th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
4146th of 251
Vesting Schedule
3204th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
4203rd of 251
Buyback and Burn
2114th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
548th of 251
Insider Selling
4151st of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
3111th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
583rd of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
636th of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
89th of 251
Exchange Depth
93rd of 251
Social Mindshare
85th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for XRP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
717th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
715th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
445th of 251
Team Execution
630th of 251
Treasury Runway
711th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Spot XRP ETF approvals in US; RLUSD stablecoin adoption by banks

Principal risk

50% of supply still held by Ripple Labs with monthly escrow releases diluting holders

04

Market and supply

Price$1.05
Market cap$65.52Brank 6
All-time high$3.6518 Jul 2025
Circulating supply62,533,271,955
Eventual supply (max supply)100,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply1.6x
Total value locked$95.0M
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to XRP measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for XRP (XRP)?
XRP scores 121 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 63rd of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are XRP's strongest fundamentals?
XRP ranks highest on Exchange Depth 9/10, 3rd of 251, Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Institutional Adoption 8/10, 9th of 251 and Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the XRP thesis?
XRP scores in the bottom third of the universe on Real Staking Yield 1/10, 226th of 251, P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251, Vesting Schedule 3/10, 204th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: 50% of supply still held by Ripple Labs with monthly escrow releases diluting holders
How much XRP supply is still to enter circulation?
62.5% of eventual XRP supply is circulating today, leaving 1.6x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 37.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is XRP from its all-time high?
XRP trades 71.3% below its all-time high of $3.65. Returning to that high requires a 3.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to XRP?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to XRP are OP (123), ARB (134), BTC (183) and WLD (89). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for XRP?
Spot XRP ETF approvals in US; RLUSD stablecoin adoption by banks

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.