Cardano (ADA)
Academic-grade L1 with heavy research pedigree but minimal DeFi traction. Chang hard fork improved governance but TVL remains tiny.
Ranked 88th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
ADA scores 113 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 88th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.
ADA is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Exchange Depth 7/10, 12th of 251, Regulatory Safety 7/10, 17th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251.
Against the same universe, ADA sits in the bottom third on P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251 and Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 83.4% of ADA's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.2x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 16.6% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
ADA trades 91.7% below its all-time high of $3.09. Recovering that level is a 12x move, not a 91.7% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
$380.0M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 25.17 dollars of token market cap.
ADA's strengths split in two. Exchange Depth are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Vesting Schedule are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it. It is weak on Market Share, which the market does price, so that damage is already done and visible in the valuation.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 3 | 98th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 3 | 117th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 2 | 218th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 6 | 17th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 6 | 43rd of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 7 | 35th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 7 | 46th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 4 | 93rd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 6 | 1st of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 3 | 111th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 4 | 91st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 5 | 83rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 3 | 156th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 3 | 131st of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 3 | 175th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 7 | 17th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 4 | 90th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 3 | 114th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 4 | 147th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
Midnight privacy sidechain traction, federated mainnet live since 31 March 2026; Hydra scaling reaching mainnet
The March 2026 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Perpetual under-delivery on roadmap; DeFi network far behind competitors; declining developer mindshare
Market and supply
| Price | $0.2547 |
| Market cap | $9.57Brank 17 |
| All-time high | $3.091 Sept 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 37,547,445,640 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 45,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.2x |
| Total value locked | $380.0M |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to ADA measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
ADA compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] Cardano TVL under $400M vs Ethereum's $50B+ in 2026
- [IOHK] Chang hard fork activated on-chain governance for ADA holders
- [Staking Rewards] Cardano staking yields approximately 2.2% annually
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Cardano (ADA)?
- ADA scores 113 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 88th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
- What are ADA's strongest fundamentals?
- ADA ranks highest on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Exchange Depth 7/10, 12th of 251, Regulatory Safety 7/10, 17th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the ADA thesis?
- ADA scores in the bottom third of the universe on P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251 and Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Perpetual under-delivery on roadmap; DeFi network far behind competitors; declining developer mindshare
- How much ADA supply is still to enter circulation?
- 83.4% of eventual ADA supply is circulating today, leaving 1.2x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 16.6% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is ADA from its all-time high?
- ADA trades 91.7% below its all-time high of $3.09. Returning to that high requires a 12x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to ADA?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ADA are LTC (102), ZIL (63), XTZ (88) and DOT (103). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was ADA scored against?
- Midnight privacy sidechain traction, federated mainnet live since 31 March 2026; Hydra scaling reaching mainnet This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The March 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.