What is the Early Thunder score for Avalanche (AVAX)?

AVAX scores 138 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 35th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

What are the weakest parts of the AVAX thesis?

AVAX scores in the bottom third of the universe on P/S Multiple 1/10, 234th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 2/10, 200th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Validator collapse -55% (1,465→656), net-inflationary (burns 0.13% vs 7.5% emissions), AWS hosts 67.4% of staked AVAX, price -95% from ATH despite strong fundamentals

How much AVAX supply is still to enter circulation?

61.6% of eventual AVAX supply is circulating today, leaving 1.62x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 38.4% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.

How far is AVAX from its all-time high?

AVAX trades 92.3% below its all-time high of $144.96. Returning to that high requires a 13x move from the level used in this scoring pass.

Which tokens have a similar profile to AVAX?

Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AVAX are HBAR (112), ALGO (97), ETH (187) and XLM (108). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.

What catalyst was AVAX scored against?

The 2026 World Cup ran to 19 July and the Progmat migration completed, so both are history rather than catalysts. Ahead: Avalanche Summit V Sep 16-17 NYC, AVAX One Nasdaq $700M target This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Sep 16 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

CAUTIOUS HOLD

Avalanche (AVAX)

Name: Avalanche (AVAX) 25-variable fundamental scorecard
Creator: Early Thunder

Best institutional traction among alt-L1s (3 ETFs, BlackRock BUIDL over $900M, SEC commodity, FIFA World Cup, CME futures).

Revenue weakness real ($767K/yr current against Hyperliquid's roughly $844M 2025 revenue). Subnet L1s complement, not cannibalize.

Ranked 35th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.

Score

138/250

35th of 251

Percentile

86.5%

of the rated universe

Circulating

61.6%

38.4% of value still to vest

Off all-time high

-92.3%

13x to recover

AvalancheLarge capNative L1+1 since last pass

What the numbers say

AVAX scores 138 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 35th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

AVAX is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Regulatory Safety 9/10, 2nd of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Institutional Adoption 9/10, 5th of 251 and Active Users 7/10, 8th of 251.

Against the same universe, AVAX sits in the bottom third on P/S Multiple 1/10, 234th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 2/10, 200th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 61.6% of AVAX's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.62x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 38.4% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

AVAX trades 92.3% below its all-time high of $144.96. Recovering that level is a 13x move, not a 92.3% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

$479.7M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 10.28 dollars of token market cap.

AVAX's strengths split in two. Active Users, Institutional Adoption, Exchange Depth and Catalyst Calendar are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Vesting Schedule are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it. Its weaknesses sit in P/S Multiple and Buyback and Burn, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue	2	166th of 251
Revenue Trend	3	117th of 251
P/S Multiple	1	234th of 251
Real Staking Yield	6	17th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation	5	61st of 251
Vesting Schedule	7	35th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio	7	46th of 251
Buyback and Burn	3	63rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows	6	26th of 251
Insider Selling	6	21st of 251
Holder Concentration	5	10th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend	3	111th of 251
Active Users	7	8th of 251
Developer Activity	6	33rd of 251
Network Growth	7	12th of 251

Position

Position variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share	4	87th of 251
Competitive Moat	6	29th of 251
Institutional Adoption	9	5th of 251
Exchange Depth	7	12th of 251
Social Mindshare	5	41st of 251

Risk

Risk variables for AVAX, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety	9	2nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar	8	3rd of 251
BTC Alpha Potential	2	200th of 251
Team Execution	7	12th of 251
Treasury Runway	7	11th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

Catalyst and risk

Catalyst on the scorecard

The 2026 World Cup ran to 19 July and the Progmat migration completed, so both are history rather than catalysts. Ahead: Avalanche Summit V Sep 16-17 NYC, AVAX One Nasdaq $700M target

The Sep 16 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Principal risk

Validator collapse -55% (1,465→656), net-inflationary (burns 0.13% vs 7.5% emissions), AWS hosts 67.4% of staked AVAX, price -95% from ATH despite strong fundamentals

Market and supply

Price	$11.12
Market cap	$4.93Brank 25
All-time high	$144.9621 Nov 2021
Circulating supply	443,283,400
Eventual supply (max supply)	720,000,000
Dilution to full supply	1.62x
Total value locked	$479.7M
Listed on	Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to AVAX measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

HBAR112/250

Hedera

WATCH · profile match 82%

ALGO97/250

Algorand

PASS · profile match 70%

ETH187/250

Ethereum

HOLD CORE · profile match 70%

XLM108/250

Stellar

WATCH · profile match 69%

UNI167/250

Uniswap

HOLD · profile match 64%

HNT122/250

Helium

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 63%

AVAX compared head to head

Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.

AVAX vs ADA AVAX vs ALGO AVAX vs CRO AVAX vs DOGE AVAX vs ENA AVAX vs ETH AVAX vs HBAR AVAX vs HNT

Sources

[CoinMarketCap] ATH $146.22 on Nov 21, 2021
[SEC/Nasdaq] 3 AVAX ETFs: VAVX (VanEck Jan 26), GAVA (Grayscale Mar 12), BAVA (Bitwise Apr 15)
[SEC] SEC/CFTC Release 33-11412: AVAX classified as digital commodity (Mar 17, 2026)
[DeFiLlama] BlackRock BUIDL over $900M on Avalanche as of July 2026, second only to Ethereum among the chains it runs on
[Bitcoin.com] FIFA World Cup 2026 ticketing on Avalanche L1, 60K+ blockchain transactions
[CoinDesk] California DMV 42M vehicle titles on permissioned Avalanche subnet
[Avalanche Blog] Progmat $2B+ tokenized securities migration from Corda to Avalanche L1 (completion Jun 2026)
[The Block] Securitize EU DLT Pilot license + Investment Firm (CNMV Spain), deploying on Avalanche
[CME Group] CME AVAX futures launched May 4-5, 2026; 24/7 trading from May 29link dead, claim unverified
[Avalanche Builder Hub] 100% of tx fees (base+priority) burned; validators paid only from staking emissions
[Avalanche Builder Hub] Avalanche9000 Etna upgrade Dec 16 2024: L1 costs reduced 99.9%, ACP-77 removes 2K AVAX requirement
[DeFiLlama] TVL $476.31M (DeFiLlama), peak was $11.4B Nov 2021 (not $2.3B as previously claimed)

3 of the source links above no longer resolve, so we stripped those hyperlinks rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 5 Oct 2026.

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Avalanche (AVAX)?: AVAX scores 138 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 35th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are AVAX's strongest fundamentals?: AVAX ranks highest on Regulatory Safety 9/10, 2nd of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Institutional Adoption 9/10, 5th of 251 and Active Users 7/10, 8th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the AVAX thesis?: AVAX scores in the bottom third of the universe on P/S Multiple 1/10, 234th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 2/10, 200th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Validator collapse -55% (1,465→656), net-inflationary (burns 0.13% vs 7.5% emissions), AWS hosts 67.4% of staked AVAX, price -95% from ATH despite strong fundamentals
How much AVAX supply is still to enter circulation?: 61.6% of eventual AVAX supply is circulating today, leaving 1.62x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 38.4% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is AVAX from its all-time high?: AVAX trades 92.3% below its all-time high of $144.96. Returning to that high requires a 13x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to AVAX?: Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AVAX are HBAR (112), ALGO (97), ETH (187) and XLM (108). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What catalyst was AVAX scored against?: The 2026 World Cup ran to 19 July and the Progmat migration completed, so both are history rather than catalysts. Ahead: Avalanche Summit V Sep 16-17 NYC, AVAX One Nasdaq $700M target This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Sep 16 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Keep reading

Avalanche full research noteOn-chain detail, team, tokenomics, competitive position and the standing verdict.Every token rated CAUTIOUS HOLDThe full band ranked by score, with what the group is collectively strong and weak on.All 251 rated tokensThe full ranking table and the method behind the 25 variables.

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.