Ethereum (ETH)
Institutional settlement layer. Commodity classification. Burn collapsed but moat intact.
Ranked 2nd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
ETH scores 187 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 2nd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
ETH is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Vesting Schedule 10/10, 1st of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 10/10, 1st of 251, Institutional Adoption 10/10, 1st of 251 and Exchange Depth 10/10, 1st of 251.
100% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for ETH. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
ETH is 48.2% off its all-time high of $4,946, a 1.9x round trip from here.
The framework score lost 12 points against the previous pass (199 to 187). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$46.17B sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 6.78 dollars of token market cap.
ETH's strengths split in two. Active Users, Market Share, Institutional Adoption, Exchange Depth and Catalyst Calendar are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule, Insider Selling and Real Staking Yield are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 7 | 5th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 7 | 26th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 6 | 1st of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 6 | 19th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 8 | 4th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 7 | 20th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 8 | 5th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 8 | 4th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
Glamsterdam ePBS (Q3 2026), CLARITY Act (the 4 July 2026 signing target was missed, the bill stalled in the Senate), staking ETF expansion
These items have already passed: Q3 2026, July 2026. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Burn collapsed (-71% post-Pectra), ETH/BTC 10mo low, 9 EF departures, identity crisis
Market and supply
| Price | $2,564 |
| Market cap | $313.17Brank 2 |
| All-time high | $4,94624 Aug 2025 |
| Circulating supply | 122,113,301 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 122,113,301 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1x |
| Total value locked | $46.17B |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Bybit |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to ETH measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
ETH compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] DeFi TVL $46.17B L1, ~$94B network (L1+L2)
- [Ropes & Gray / SEC] SEC-CFTC classified ETH as digital commodity (68-page joint release, Mar 17 2026)
- [Ainvest / SEC] Goldman Sachs holds 288,294 ETH (~$721.8M) via SEC 424B2 filings
- [CoinDesk] BlackRock ETHB staking ETF launched Mar 12, 2026 on Nasdaq
- [Electric Capital] 31,869 active developers, #1 network (Electric Capital Sep 2025)
- [CoinDesk] ETH/BTC ratio 0.0279, 10-month low (May 12, 2026)
- [Memeburn / CoinDesk] 9 senior EF departures in 2026 including Stańczak, Beiko, Monnot, Stark
- [beaconcha.in] Post-Pectra burn collapsed to 3.26 ETH/day (-71%)
- [Congress.gov / CCN] CLARITY Act passed Senate Banking 15-9 on 14 May 2026, but the 4 July signing target lapsed and the bill stalled
- [Farside Investors] Spot ETH ETF cumulative inflows $11.21B, AUM $9.78B
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Ethereum (ETH)?
- ETH scores 187 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 2nd of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
- What are ETH's strongest fundamentals?
- ETH ranks highest on Vesting Schedule 10/10, 1st of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 10/10, 1st of 251, Institutional Adoption 10/10, 1st of 251 and Exchange Depth 10/10, 1st of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- How much ETH supply is still to enter circulation?
- 100% of eventual ETH supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is ETH from its all-time high?
- ETH trades 48.2% below its all-time high of $4,946. Returning to that high requires a 1.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to ETH?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ETH are AAVE (156), AVAX (138), GRT (121) and COMP (119). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was ETH scored against?
- Glamsterdam ePBS (Q3 2026), CLARITY Act (the 4 July 2026 signing target was missed, the bill stalled in the Senate), staking ETF expansion This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Q3 2026 and July 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.