Aave (AAVE)
KelpDAO $190-230M bad debt, 3 core team departures (ACI/BGD/Chaos), buybacks PAUSED. But $142M rev, 55-63% share, V4+Umbrella live, SEC cleared.
Ranked 18th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
AAVE scores 156 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 18th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
AAVE is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on P/S Multiple 8/10, 2nd of 251, Supply Inflation 9/10, 3rd of 251, Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251 and Exchange Depth 8/10, 5th of 251.
Against the same universe, AAVE sits in the bottom third on BTC Alpha Potential 2/10, 200th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
96.4% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for AAVE. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
AAVE trades 86.5% below its all-time high of $661.69. Recovering that level is a 7.4x move, not a 86.5% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score lost 24 points against the previous pass (180 to 156). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$14.49B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 7 | 10th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 8 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 6 | 17th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 9 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 9 | 8th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 9 | 10th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 4 | 40th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 4 | 58th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 3 | 111th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 6 | 24th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 4 | 158th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 8 | 4th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 8 | 9th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 8 | 5th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 8 | 6th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 7 | 15th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 2 | 200th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 4 | 147th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
V4 multi-chain expansion, Grayscale/Bitwise ETF filings, CLARITY Act DeFi safe harbor, Horizon $1B target
Principal risk
KelpDAO bad debt resolution, Morpho $175M raise competitive threat, governance centralization (top 3 = 58% votes)
Market and supply
| Price | $89.00 |
| Market cap | $1.37Brank 53 |
| All-time high | $661.6918 May 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 15,422,360 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 16,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.04x |
| Total value locked | $14.49B |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to AAVE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [CoinDesk] KelpDAO LayerZero bridge exploit: $292M hack, $190-230M bad debt on Aave, Lazarus Group attributed
- [CoinDesk] DeFi United raised $160M of $200M needed; rsETH operations restored May 26, 2026
- [Aave Governance Forum] ACI (61% of governance actions) departing March 2026; BGD Labs (V3 builder) departed April 2026
- [CoinDesk] Chaos Labs (risk manager) departed April 6, 2026, third core contributor exit
- [CoinDesk] 'Aave Will Win' passed 75%: 100% product revenue redirected to DAO treasury
- [The Defiant] Aave V4 live on Ethereum mainnet March 30, 2026, hub-and-spoke architecture
- [CryptoSlate] Umbrella safety module LIVE June 5, 2026, automated on-chain slashing
- [CryptoNomist] $1 trillion cumulative loan volume milestone, February 2026
- [CoinMarketCap] GHO supply ~$584M, cross-chain via Chainlink CCIP (Arb, Base, Avax)
- [Crypto Times] Morpho $175M raise at $2B valuation (Paradigm, a16z), fastest-growing competitor
- [Aave Governance] Buybacks paused April 19, 2026; 205K AAVE (1.28% supply) purchased before pause
- [CryptoRank] Grayscale S-1 filed for spot AAVE ETF, February 2026
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Aave (AAVE)?
- AAVE scores 156 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 18th of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are AAVE's strongest fundamentals?
- AAVE ranks highest on P/S Multiple 8/10, 2nd of 251, Supply Inflation 9/10, 3rd of 251, Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251 and Exchange Depth 8/10, 5th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the AAVE thesis?
- AAVE scores in the bottom third of the universe on BTC Alpha Potential 2/10, 200th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: KelpDAO bad debt resolution, Morpho $175M raise competitive threat, governance centralization (top 3 = 58% votes)
- How much AAVE supply is still to enter circulation?
- 96.4% of eventual AAVE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.04x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 3.6% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is AAVE from its all-time high?
- AAVE trades 86.5% below its all-time high of $661.69. Returning to that high requires a 7.4x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to AAVE?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AAVE are ETH (187), ANKR (96), THETA (105) and CVX (103). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for AAVE?
- V4 multi-chain expansion, Grayscale/Bitwise ETF filings, CLARITY Act DeFi safe harbor, Horizon $1B target
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.