CAUTIOUS HOLD

The Graph (GRT)

Web3 data indexing with 700+ subgraphs; real query fee revenue but P/S elevated and token inflation from indexer rewards dilutes holders.

Ranked 63rd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
121/250
63rd of 251
Percentile
75.3%
of the rated universe
Circulating
100%
0% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-99.49%
196.1x to recover
EthereumERC-20+21 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

GRT scores 121 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 63rd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

GRT is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Regulatory Safety 7/10, 17th of 251, Revenue Trend 5/10, 32nd of 251 and Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251.

Against the same universe, GRT sits in the bottom third on BTC Alpha Potential 1/10, 240th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

100% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for GRT. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.

GRT trades 99.49% below its all-time high of $2.84. Recovering that level is a 196.1x move, not a 99.49% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 21 points against the previous pass (100 to 121). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
537th of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
4104th of 251
Real Staking Yield
537th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
4146th of 251
Vesting Schedule
5100th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
746th of 251
Buyback and Burn
363rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
493rd of 251
Insider Selling
542nd of 251
Holder Concentration
510th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
465th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
636th of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
637th of 251
Social Mindshare
486th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for GRT, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
717th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
490th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
1240th of 251
Team Execution
574th of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

GRT as default indexing layer for AI agents querying blockchain data; Arbitrum and L2 growth

Principal risk

Continuous token inflation from indexer/curator rewards; 99% down from ATH; query fees growing slowly vs token emissions

04

Market and supply

Price$0.0145
Market cap$156.2Mrank 189
All-time high$2.8412 Feb 2021
Circulating supply10,799,867,657
Eventual supply (max supply)10,800,262,823
Dilution to full supply1x
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, OKX, Kraken

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to GRT measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [The Graph Network Stats] The Graph indexes 700+ subgraphs across 40+ blockchain networks with $3M+ annualized query fees
  • [CoinGecko] GRT ATH $2.84 reached February 2021; currently 99% below all-time high
  • [Token Terminal] Indexer rewards continuously emit new GRT creating ongoing inflation pressure for token holders
07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for The Graph (GRT)?
GRT scores 121 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 63rd of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are GRT's strongest fundamentals?
GRT ranks highest on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Regulatory Safety 7/10, 17th of 251, Revenue Trend 5/10, 32nd of 251 and Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the GRT thesis?
GRT scores in the bottom third of the universe on BTC Alpha Potential 1/10, 240th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Continuous token inflation from indexer/curator rewards; 99% down from ATH; query fees growing slowly vs token emissions
How much GRT supply is still to enter circulation?
100% of eventual GRT supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is GRT from its all-time high?
GRT trades 99.49% below its all-time high of $2.84. Returning to that high requires a 196.1x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to GRT?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to GRT are FXS (105), DOT (103), OSMO (93) and MATIC (110). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for GRT?
GRT as default indexing layer for AI agents querying blockchain data; Arbitrum and L2 growth

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.