CAUTIOUS HOLD

Berachain (BERA)

Novel Proof-of-Liquidity L1 with highest post-launch TVL in history, but BERA token down 97.5% and PoL is untested long-term

Ranked 51st of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
127/250
51st of 251
Percentile
80.1%
of the rated universe
Circulating
56.9%
43.1% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-98.9%
90.9x to recover
BerachainERC-20+9 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

BERA scores 127 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 51st of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

The score rests on TVL Trend 7/10, 11th of 251, Network Growth 7/10, 12th of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 5/10, 13th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251.

Against the same universe, BERA sits in the bottom third on Vesting Schedule 3/10, 204th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251 and Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 56.9% of BERA's total supply is in circulation, so 1.76x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 43.1% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

BERA trades 98.9% below its all-time high of $14.83. Recovering that level is a 90.9x move, not a 98.9% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 9 points against the previous pass (118 to 127). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$850.0M sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
460th of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
623rd of 251
Real Staking Yield
617th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
3199th of 251
Vesting Schedule
3204th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
4203rd of 251
Buyback and Burn
363rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
626th of 251
Insider Selling
4151st of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
711th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
552nd of 251
Competitive Moat
629th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
623rd of 251

Risk

Risk variables for BERA, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
5102nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
550th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
513th of 251
Team Execution
630th of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Berachain network DeFi growth with PoL driving genuine liquidity depth; BGT/HONEY stablecoin flywheel

Principal risk

97.5% down from ATH; PoL model unproven at scale; BERA token has weak direct value accrual vs BGT governance token

04

Market and supply

Price$0.1604
Market cap$50.7Mrank 417
All-time high$14.836 Feb 2025
Circulating supply315,598,061
Eventual supply (total supply)554,671,466
Dilution to full supply1.76x
Total value locked$850.0M
Listed onBybit, Gate.io, Binance

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to BERA measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [DefiLlama] Berachain launched in Feb 2025 with record $3B+ TVL at launch via Proof-of-Liquidity incentives
  • [CoinGecko] BERA crashed from $15+ launch price to under $0.40 as PoL rewards diluted and early holders exited
  • [Berachain Docs] Berachain's tri-token model (BERA/BGT/HONEY) is novel but creates governance complexity and unclear value accrual for BERA holderslink dead, claim unverified

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Berachain (BERA)?
BERA scores 127 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 51st of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are BERA's strongest fundamentals?
BERA ranks highest on TVL Trend 7/10, 11th of 251, Network Growth 7/10, 12th of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 5/10, 13th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the BERA thesis?
BERA scores in the bottom third of the universe on Vesting Schedule 3/10, 204th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251 and Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: 97.5% down from ATH; PoL model unproven at scale; BERA token has weak direct value accrual vs BGT governance token
How much BERA supply is still to enter circulation?
56.9% of eventual BERA supply is circulating today, leaving 1.76x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 43.1% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is BERA from its all-time high?
BERA trades 98.9% below its all-time high of $14.83. Returning to that high requires a 90.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to BERA?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to BERA are SUI (146), APT (116), SEI (100) and EIGEN (107). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for BERA?
Berachain network DeFi growth with PoL driving genuine liquidity depth; BGT/HONEY stablecoin flywheel

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.