HOLD

Sui (SUI)

Move-language L1 with best TVL growth trajectory in 2025-2026. Strong DeFi traction but heavy vesting schedule is key risk.

Ranked 23rd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
146/250
23rd of 251
Percentile
91.2%
of the rated universe
Circulating
40.7%
59.3% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-87.4%
7.9x to recover
SuiNative L1+9 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

SUI scores 146 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 23rd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.

SUI is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Revenue Trend 8/10, 2nd of 251 and Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251.

Against the same universe, SUI sits in the bottom third on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 40.7% of SUI's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.45x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 59.3% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

SUI trades 87.4% below its all-time high of $5.35. Recovering that level is a 7.9x move, not a 87.4% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 9 points against the previous pass (137 to 146). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$2.10B sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 1.31 dollars of token market cap.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
398th of 251
Revenue Trend
82nd of 251
P/S Multiple
538th of 251
Real Staking Yield
537th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
2228th of 251
Vesting Schedule
2223rd of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
3225th of 251
Buyback and Burn
2114th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
87th of 251
Insider Selling
4151st of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
91st of 251
Active Users
78th of 251
Developer Activity
81st of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
636th of 251
Competitive Moat
714th of 251
Institutional Adoption
626th of 251
Exchange Depth
712th of 251
Social Mindshare
85th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for SUI, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
652nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
715th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
73rd of 251
Team Execution
83rd of 251
Treasury Runway
711th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Dominant DEX volume growth; zkLogin adoption driving user onboarding; CETUS liquidity monopoly

Principal risk

Only 33% of tokens in circulation; Mysten Labs/VC releases through 2028 create structural sell pressure

04

Market and supply

Price$0.6746
Market cap$2.75Brank 33
All-time high$5.354 Jan 2025
Circulating supply4,074,529,886
Eventual supply (max supply)10,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply2.45x
Total value locked$2.10B
Listed onBinance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to SUI measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [DeFiLlama] Sui TVL grew from $200M to $2.1B in 2025, fastest growth among L1s
  • [Messari] Sui circulating supply only 33% of total with major releases through 2028
  • [Dune Analytics] Sui DEX volume reached $5B weekly in peak 2025 periods
07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Sui (SUI)?
SUI scores 146 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 23rd of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
What are SUI's strongest fundamentals?
SUI ranks highest on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Revenue Trend 8/10, 2nd of 251 and Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the SUI thesis?
SUI scores in the bottom third of the universe on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 33% of tokens in circulation; Mysten Labs/VC releases through 2028 create structural sell pressure
How much SUI supply is still to enter circulation?
40.7% of eventual SUI supply is circulating today, leaving 2.45x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 59.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is SUI from its all-time high?
SUI trades 87.4% below its all-time high of $5.35. Returning to that high requires a 7.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to SUI?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to SUI are APT (116), BERA (127), EIGEN (107) and MORPHO (157). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for SUI?
Dominant DEX volume growth; zkLogin adoption driving user onboarding; CETUS liquidity monopoly

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.