Sui (SUI)
Move-language L1 with best TVL growth trajectory in 2025-2026. Strong DeFi traction but heavy vesting schedule is key risk.
Ranked 23rd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
SUI scores 146 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 23rd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
SUI is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Revenue Trend 8/10, 2nd of 251 and Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251.
Against the same universe, SUI sits in the bottom third on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 41.2% of SUI's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.43x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 58.8% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
SUI is 79% off its all-time high of $5.35, a 4.8x round trip from here.
The framework score gained 9 points against the previous pass (137 to 146). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$2.10B sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 2.20 dollars of token market cap.
SUI is strong on Active Users, Exchange Depth, Catalyst Calendar and Social Mindshare, and those are variables the market demonstrably pays for across the rated universe. Most of that quality is already in the price. Its weaknesses sit in Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule and Buyback and Burn, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 3 | 98th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 8 | 2nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 5 | 37th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 2 | 228th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 2 | 223rd of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 3 | 225th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 2 | 114th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 8 | 7th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 4 | 151st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 4 | 58th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| Active Users | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 7 | 12th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 6 | 36th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 8 | 5th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 7 | 15th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 7 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Dominant DEX volume growth; zkLogin adoption driving user onboarding; CETUS liquidity monopoly
Principal risk
Only 33% of tokens in circulation; Mysten Labs/VC releases through 2028 create structural sell pressure
Market and supply
| Price | $1.12 |
| Market cap | $4.63Brank 28 |
| All-time high | $5.354 Jan 2025 |
| Circulating supply | 4,118,270,448 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 10,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 2.43x |
| Total value locked | $2.10B |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to SUI measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
SUI compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] Sui TVL grew from $200M to $2.1B in 2025, fastest growth among L1s
- [Messari] Sui circulating supply only 33% of total with major releases through 2028
- [Dune Analytics] Sui DEX volume reached $5B weekly in peak 2025 periods
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Sui (SUI)?
- SUI scores 146 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 23rd of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are SUI's strongest fundamentals?
- SUI ranks highest on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Revenue Trend 8/10, 2nd of 251 and Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the SUI thesis?
- SUI scores in the bottom third of the universe on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 33% of tokens in circulation; Mysten Labs/VC releases through 2028 create structural sell pressure
- How much SUI supply is still to enter circulation?
- 41.2% of eventual SUI supply is circulating today, leaving 2.43x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 58.8% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is SUI from its all-time high?
- SUI trades 79% below its all-time high of $5.35. Returning to that high requires a 4.8x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to SUI?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to SUI are APT (116), BERA (127), EIGEN (107) and MORPHO (157). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for SUI?
- Dominant DEX volume growth; zkLogin adoption driving user onboarding; CETUS liquidity monopoly
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.