Aptos (APT)
Move-language L1 from ex-Meta team with solid tech but massive vesting schedule dragging price. TVL growing but token inflation brutal.
Ranked 81st of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
APT scores 116 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 81st of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.
The score rests on Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, TVL Trend 6/10, 19th of 251, Smart Money Flows 6/10, 26th of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 6/10, 29th of 251.
Against the same universe, APT sits in the bottom third on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251 and Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 41.5% of APT's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.41x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 58.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
APT trades 96.2% below its all-time high of $19.92. Recovering that level is a 26.3x move, not a 96.2% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
$890.0M sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
APT clears 7 of 10 on none of the 25 variables. Its best three are Real Staking Yield at 6, TVL Trend at 6, Smart Money Flows at 6. The market prices none of those, so there is nothing here it is failing to notice either. This is a low score on things nobody is bidding for. Its weaknesses sit in Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule, Buyback and Burn and Insider Selling, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 4 | 60th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 4 | 104th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 6 | 17th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 2 | 228th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 2 | 223rd of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 3 | 225th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 3 | 201st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 4 | 58th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 6 | 19th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 6 | 33rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 4 | 87th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 5 | 36th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 6 | 37th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Microsoft partnership for AI on Aptos; strong Move network crossover with Sui
Principal risk
Only 27% of tokens in circulation; heavy VC and team allocations opening through 2028 create massive sell pressure
Market and supply
| Price | $0.7484 |
| Market cap | $652.3Mrank 100 |
| All-time high | $19.9226 Jan 2023 |
| Circulating supply | 871,329,739 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 2,100,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 2.41x |
| Total value locked | $890.0M |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to APT measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
APT compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] Aptos TVL grew to nearly $900M in 2026 driven by DeFi expansion
- [Messari] Aptos circulating supply only 27% of total with releases continuing through 2028
- [Aptos Foundation] Microsoft and Aptos Labs partnership for AI agent infrastructure announced
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Aptos (APT)?
- APT scores 116 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 81st of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
- What are APT's strongest fundamentals?
- APT ranks highest on Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, TVL Trend 6/10, 19th of 251, Smart Money Flows 6/10, 26th of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 6/10, 29th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the APT thesis?
- APT scores in the bottom third of the universe on Supply Inflation 2/10, 228th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251 and Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 27% of tokens in circulation; heavy VC and team allocations opening through 2028 create massive sell pressure
- How much APT supply is still to enter circulation?
- 41.5% of eventual APT supply is circulating today, leaving 2.41x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 58.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is APT from its all-time high?
- APT trades 96.2% below its all-time high of $19.92. Returning to that high requires a 26.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to APT?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to APT are SEI (100), SUI (146), BERA (127) and FIL (101). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for APT?
- Microsoft partnership for AI on Aptos; strong Move network crossover with Sui
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.