Filecoin (FIL)
Decentralized storage with real utilization but massive FDV overhang. Storage demand growing but token price suppressed by large future releases.
Ranked 135th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
FIL scores 101 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 135th of 251 rated tokens and inside the lower half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.
The score rests on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Exchange Depth 6/10, 37th of 251, Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251 and Regulatory Safety 6/10, 52nd of 251.
Against the same universe, FIL sits in the bottom third on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 42.6% of FIL's total supply is in circulation, so 2.35x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 57.4% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
FIL trades 99.56% below its all-time high of $236.84. Recovering that level is a 227.3x move, not a 99.56% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
$48.0M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 18.07 dollars of token market cap.
FIL clears 7 of 10 on none of the 25 variables. Its best three are Developer Activity at 6, Exchange Depth at 6, Regulatory Safety at 6. The market does pay for Exchange Depth, so even the little that works here is already in the price. Its weaknesses sit in P/S Multiple, Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule, Buyback and Burn and Insider Selling, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 4 | 60th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 3 | 182nd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 4 | 82nd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 3 | 199th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 2 | 223rd of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 3 | 225th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 4 | 93rd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 3 | 201st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 4 | 58th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 4 | 65th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 4 | 91st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 6 | 33rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 5 | 52nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 6 | 37th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 4 | 86th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 5 | 50th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 2 | 200th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 5 | 74th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 5 | 74th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
AI data storage demand; Filecoin Virtual Machine (FEVM) DeFi expansion
Principal risk
FDV is 2x+ circulating cap with large future releases; centralized alternatives cheaper; slow user growth
Market and supply
| Price | $1.04 |
| Market cap | $867.2Mrank 84 |
| All-time high | $236.841 Apr 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 834,443,033 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 1,957,007,633 |
| Dilution to full supply | 2.35x |
| Total value locked | $48.0M |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to FIL measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
FIL compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [Filecoin Foundation] Filecoin stores over 2 exabytes of data as of 2025
- [Messari] FIL circulating supply only 43% of max with significant future miner rewards opening
- [Protocol Labs] Filecoin Virtual Machine launched March 2023 enabling EVM-compatible smart contracts
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Filecoin (FIL)?
- FIL scores 101 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 135th of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
- What are FIL's strongest fundamentals?
- FIL ranks highest on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Exchange Depth 6/10, 37th of 251, Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251 and Regulatory Safety 6/10, 52nd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the FIL thesis?
- FIL scores in the bottom third of the universe on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: FDV is 2x+ circulating cap with large future releases; centralized alternatives cheaper; slow user growth
- How much FIL supply is still to enter circulation?
- 42.6% of eventual FIL supply is circulating today, leaving 2.35x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 57.4% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is FIL from its all-time high?
- FIL trades 99.56% below its all-time high of $236.84. Returning to that high requires a 227.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to FIL?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to FIL are POL (123), IMX (117), APT (116) and W (92). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for FIL?
- AI data storage demand; Filecoin Virtual Machine (FEVM) DeFi expansion
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.