WATCH

Filecoin (FIL)

Decentralized storage with real utilization but massive FDV overhang. Storage demand growing but token price suppressed by large future releases.

Ranked 135th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
101/250
135th of 251
Percentile
46.6%
of the rated universe
Circulating
41.8%
58.2% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-99.71%
344.8x to recover
FilecoinNative L1+3 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

FIL scores 101 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 135th of 251 rated tokens and inside the lower half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.

The score rests on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Exchange Depth 6/10, 37th of 251, Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251 and Regulatory Safety 6/10, 52nd of 251.

Against the same universe, FIL sits in the bottom third on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 41.8% of FIL's total supply is in circulation, so 2.39x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 58.2% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

FIL trades 99.71% below its all-time high of $236.84. Recovering that level is a 344.8x move, not a 99.71% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

$48.0M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 11.86 dollars of token market cap.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
460th of 251
Revenue Trend
471st of 251
P/S Multiple
3182nd of 251
Real Staking Yield
482nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
3199th of 251
Vesting Schedule
2223rd of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
3225th of 251
Buyback and Burn
1205th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
493rd of 251
Insider Selling
3201st of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
465th of 251
Active Users
491st of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
552nd of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
471st of 251
Exchange Depth
637th of 251
Social Mindshare
486th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for FIL, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
652nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
550th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
2200th of 251
Team Execution
574th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

AI data storage demand; Filecoin Virtual Machine (FEVM) DeFi expansion

Principal risk

FDV is 2x+ circulating cap with large future releases; centralized alternatives cheaper; slow user growth

04

Market and supply

Price$0.6963
Market cap$569.3Mrank 90
All-time high$236.841 Apr 2021
Circulating supply817,572,718
Eventual supply (total supply)1,957,159,425
Dilution to full supply2.39x
Total value locked$48.0M
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to FIL measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [Filecoin Foundation] Filecoin stores over 2 exabytes of data as of 2025
  • [Messari] FIL circulating supply only 43% of max with significant future miner rewards opening
  • [Protocol Labs] Filecoin Virtual Machine launched March 2023 enabling EVM-compatible smart contracts
07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Filecoin (FIL)?
FIL scores 101 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 135th of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
What are FIL's strongest fundamentals?
FIL ranks highest on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Exchange Depth 6/10, 37th of 251, Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251 and Regulatory Safety 6/10, 52nd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the FIL thesis?
FIL scores in the bottom third of the universe on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: FDV is 2x+ circulating cap with large future releases; centralized alternatives cheaper; slow user growth
How much FIL supply is still to enter circulation?
41.8% of eventual FIL supply is circulating today, leaving 2.39x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 58.2% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is FIL from its all-time high?
FIL trades 99.71% below its all-time high of $236.84. Returning to that high requires a 344.8x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to FIL?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to FIL are POL (123), IMX (117), APT (116) and W (92). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for FIL?
AI data storage demand; Filecoin Virtual Machine (FEVM) DeFi expansion

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.