Wormhole (W)
Cross-chain messaging with $45B+ cumulative bridge volume; only 18% circulating with devastating vesting schedule and no protocol revenue to token.
Ranked 184th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
W scores 92 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 184th of 251 rated tokens and inside the lower half of the set. The framework verdict is PASS.
The score rests on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Treasury Runway 6/10, 33rd of 251, Market Share 6/10, 36th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 4/10, 45th of 251.
Against the same universe, W sits in the bottom third on Supply Inflation 1/10, 249th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 1/10, 249th of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251 and Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 62.5% of W's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.6x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 37.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
W trades 99.5% below its all-time high of $1.66. Recovering that level is a 200x move, not a 99.5% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 13 points against the previous pass (79 to 92). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 3 | 98th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 3 | 117th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 2 | 218th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 3 | 143rd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 1 | 249th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 1 | 244th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 1 | 249th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 5 | 48th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 2 | 242nd of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 2 | 240th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 4 | 65th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 4 | 91st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 6 | 33rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 5 | 52nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 6 | 36th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 5 | 73rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 4 | 86th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 4 | 90th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 5 | 74th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
W as fee token for Wormhole messaging; NTT standard adoption by top protocols
Principal risk
Only 18% circulating (FDV ~$1.1B vs $200M market cap); massive insider dilution coming; bridge revenue does not accrue to W token holders
Market and supply
| Price | $0.008315 |
| Market cap | $52.0Mrank 409 |
| All-time high | $1.663 Apr 2024 |
| Circulating supply | 6,249,985,577 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 10,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.6x |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to W measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [Wormhole Explorer] Wormhole has facilitated $45B+ in cumulative cross-chain transfers across 30+ blockchains
- [Wormhole Token Docs] W token launched March 2024 with only 18% of 10B total supply at TGE; insiders vest over 4 yearslink dead, claim unverified
- [CoinGecko] W ATH $0.877 reached April 2024 on TGE momentum; now 98.5% below ATH
One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Wormhole (W)?
- W scores 92 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 184th of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is PASS.
- What are W's strongest fundamentals?
- W ranks highest on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Treasury Runway 6/10, 33rd of 251, Market Share 6/10, 36th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 4/10, 45th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the W thesis?
- W scores in the bottom third of the universe on Supply Inflation 1/10, 249th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 1/10, 249th of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251 and Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 18% circulating (FDV ~$1.1B vs $200M market cap); massive insider dilution coming; bridge revenue does not accrue to W token holders
- How much W supply is still to enter circulation?
- 62.5% of eventual W supply is circulating today, leaving 1.6x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 37.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is W from its all-time high?
- W trades 99.5% below its all-time high of $1.66. Returning to that high requires a 200x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to W?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to W are EIGEN (107), PYTH (107), OP (123) and FIL (101). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for W?
- W as fee token for Wormhole messaging; NTT standard adoption by top protocols
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.