PASS

Wormhole (W)

Cross-chain messaging with $45B+ cumulative bridge volume; only 18% circulating with devastating vesting schedule and no protocol revenue to token.

Ranked 184th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
92/250
184th of 251
Percentile
27.1%
of the rated universe
Circulating
62.5%
37.5% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-99.5%
200x to recover
SolanaSPL+13 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

W scores 92 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 184th of 251 rated tokens and inside the lower half of the set. The framework verdict is PASS.

The score rests on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Treasury Runway 6/10, 33rd of 251, Market Share 6/10, 36th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 4/10, 45th of 251.

Against the same universe, W sits in the bottom third on Supply Inflation 1/10, 249th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 1/10, 249th of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251 and Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 62.5% of W's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.6x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 37.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

W trades 99.5% below its all-time high of $1.66. Recovering that level is a 200x move, not a 99.5% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 13 points against the previous pass (79 to 92). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
398th of 251
Revenue Trend
3117th of 251
P/S Multiple
2218th of 251
Real Staking Yield
3143rd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
1249th of 251
Vesting Schedule
1244th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
1249th of 251
Buyback and Burn
1205th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
548th of 251
Insider Selling
2242nd of 251
Holder Concentration
2240th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
465th of 251
Active Users
491st of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
636th of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
471st of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
486th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for W, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
652nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
490th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
445th of 251
Team Execution
574th of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

W as fee token for Wormhole messaging; NTT standard adoption by top protocols

Principal risk

Only 18% circulating (FDV ~$1.1B vs $200M market cap); massive insider dilution coming; bridge revenue does not accrue to W token holders

04

Market and supply

Price$0.008315
Market cap$52.0Mrank 409
All-time high$1.663 Apr 2024
Circulating supply6,249,985,577
Eventual supply (max supply)10,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply1.6x
Listed onBinance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to W measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [Wormhole Explorer] Wormhole has facilitated $45B+ in cumulative cross-chain transfers across 30+ blockchains
  • [Wormhole Token Docs] W token launched March 2024 with only 18% of 10B total supply at TGE; insiders vest over 4 yearslink dead, claim unverified
  • [CoinGecko] W ATH $0.877 reached April 2024 on TGE momentum; now 98.5% below ATH

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Wormhole (W)?
W scores 92 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 184th of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is PASS.
What are W's strongest fundamentals?
W ranks highest on Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Treasury Runway 6/10, 33rd of 251, Market Share 6/10, 36th of 251 and BTC Alpha Potential 4/10, 45th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the W thesis?
W scores in the bottom third of the universe on Supply Inflation 1/10, 249th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 1/10, 249th of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251 and Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 18% circulating (FDV ~$1.1B vs $200M market cap); massive insider dilution coming; bridge revenue does not accrue to W token holders
How much W supply is still to enter circulation?
62.5% of eventual W supply is circulating today, leaving 1.6x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 37.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is W from its all-time high?
W trades 99.5% below its all-time high of $1.66. Returning to that high requires a 200x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to W?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to W are EIGEN (107), PYTH (107), OP (123) and FIL (101). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for W?
W as fee token for Wormhole messaging; NTT standard adoption by top protocols

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.