CAUTIOUS HOLD

Bittensor (TAO)

Decentralized AI network with 64 subnets; narrative-driven but real compute marketplace emerging; BTC-like emission schedule.

Ranked 49th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
128/250
49th of 251
Percentile
80.9%
of the rated universe
Circulating
45.7%
54.3% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-74.6%
3.9x to recover
BittensorNative L1+7 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

TAO scores 128 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 49th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

TAO is a top-10 name in the set on 2 variables. The score rests on Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251 and Network Growth 7/10, 12th of 251.

Against the same universe, TAO sits in the bottom third on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251 and P/S Multiple 3/10, 182nd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 45.7% of TAO's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.19x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 54.3% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

TAO is 74.6% off its all-time high of $757.60, a 3.9x round trip from here.

The framework score gained 7 points against the previous pass (121 to 128). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
398th of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
3182nd of 251
Real Staking Yield
617th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
3199th of 251
Vesting Schedule
2223rd of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
3225th of 251
Buyback and Burn
2114th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
712th of 251
Insider Selling
542nd of 251
Holder Concentration
458th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
465th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
79th of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
720th of 251
Competitive Moat
629th of 251
Institutional Adoption
626th of 251
Exchange Depth
712th of 251
Social Mindshare
85th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for TAO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
652nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
629th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
513th of 251
Team Execution
630th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Dtao subnet tokenization enabling sub-token economies; AI compute demand structurally growing

Principal risk

No real revenue accrual to TAO; subnet quality highly variable; BTC-correlated with extra volatility; 44% supply still to emit

04

Market and supply

Price$192.55
Market cap$1.85Brank 42
All-time high$757.607 Mar 2024
Circulating supply9,597,491
Eventual supply (max supply)21,000,000
Dilution to full supply2.19x
Listed onBinance, OKX, Bybit, Coinbase

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to TAO measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [Taostats] Bittensor has 64 active subnets covering AI inference, image generation, text mining as of May 2026
  • [CoinGecko] TAO has BTC-like emission schedule with 21M max supply; currently ~7.4M TAO in circulation
  • [Bittensor Blog] dTAO upgrade enabled subnet-specific tokens creating sub-economies within Bittensor networklink dead, claim unverified
  • [CoinMarketCap] TAO ATH $775 reached November 2024 on AI narrative peak

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Bittensor (TAO)?
TAO scores 128 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 49th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are TAO's strongest fundamentals?
TAO ranks highest on Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251 and Network Growth 7/10, 12th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the TAO thesis?
TAO scores in the bottom third of the universe on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251 and P/S Multiple 3/10, 182nd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: No real revenue accrual to TAO; subnet quality highly variable; BTC-correlated with extra volatility; 44% supply still to emit
How much TAO supply is still to enter circulation?
45.7% of eventual TAO supply is circulating today, leaving 2.19x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 54.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is TAO from its all-time high?
TAO trades 74.6% below its all-time high of $757.60. Returning to that high requires a 3.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to TAO?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to TAO are EIGEN (107), W (92), WLD (89) and SUI (146). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for TAO?
Dtao subnet tokenization enabling sub-token economies; AI compute demand structurally growing

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.