WATCH

Toncoin (TON)

GRAM rebrand Jun 15. Telegram 1B MAU took direct control (MTONGA). TVL collapsed -91% ($56M). $61M/month Believers releases through Oct 2028. 1.08B frozen TON unfreezes Feb 2027. Stars onramp real but DeFi dead.

Ranked 94th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
110/250
94th of 251
Percentile
62.9%
of the rated universe
Circulating
52.4%
47.6% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-83.2%
6x to recover
TONNative L1-11 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

TON scores 110 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 94th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.

TON is a top-10 name in the set on 3 variables. The score rests on Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251 and Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251.

Against the same universe, TON sits in the bottom third on Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251, Holder Concentration 2/10, 240th of 251, Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 52.4% of TON's total supply is in circulation, so 1.91x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 47.6% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

TON trades 83.2% below its all-time high of $8.25. Recovering that level is a 6x move, not a 83.2% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score lost 11 points against the previous pass (121 to 110). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$56.4M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 67.16 dollars of token market cap.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
1221st of 251
Revenue Trend
2191st of 251
P/S Multiple
3182nd of 251
Real Staking Yield
537th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
3199th of 251
Vesting Schedule
2223rd of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
4203rd of 251
Buyback and Burn
2114th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
712th of 251
Insider Selling
2242nd of 251
Holder Concentration
2240th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
2189th of 251
Active Users
624th of 251
Developer Activity
79th of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
487th of 251
Competitive Moat
714th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
712th of 251
Social Mindshare
85th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for TON, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
3237th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
83rd of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
3114th of 251
Team Execution
712th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Catalyst on the scorecard

GRAM rebrand Jun 15, TON Teleport BTC bridge, TON Pay 2.0, MTONGA steps 5-7, Stars-to-TON fiat onramp

The Jun 15 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 11 Jun 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Principal risk

Believers $61M/mo releases (27mo left), 1.08B frozen wallets unfreeze Feb 2027, Durov 12 charges, 85% whale concentration, zero protocol revenue

04

Market and supply

TON now trades as GRAM. The scoring pass ran under the old ticker, so the scores below are filed under TON while the market figures track GRAM.

Price$1.38
Market cap$3.79Brank 26
All-time high$8.2514 Jun 2024
Circulating supply2,740,277,766
Eventual supply (total supply)5,226,664,741
Dilution to full supply1.91x
Total value locked$56.4M
Listed onBinance, OKX, Bybit

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to TON measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [CoinCentral] Toncoin renamed GRAM effective June 15, 2026, 81.22% community vote
  • [crypto.news] Telegram 1B MAU March 2026, took direct control via MTONGA roadmap
  • [Coinedition] Telegram replaced TON Foundation as largest validator, staked 2.2M TON May 4, 2026
  • [DefiLlama] TVL collapsed from $650M peak to ~$56M (-91%), DeFi essentially dead
  • [Tonviewer] Believers Fund: 37M TON/month ($61M) opening through October 2028, 27 periods remain
  • [Blockworks] 1.08B TON in frozen inactive miner wallets, unfreezes February 2027
  • [Binance Square / WhiteRabbit] 85% of TON supply mined by interconnected whale group during PoW phase
  • [CoinTelegraph] Catchain 2.0: 400ms blocks, 6x fee reduction, ~1s finality (April 9, 2026)
  • [DefiLlama] $1.13B stablecoins on TON (USDT 76%), growing while DeFi TVL collapsed
  • [BeInCrypto / Fortune] Telegram sold $450M TON in 2025; $400M VC round (Sequoia, Benchmark, Ribbit)
  • [The Block] TONX (Verb Technology) $558M treasury, now $307M paper loss at current prices
  • [TechPolicy.Press] Durov: 12 charges active, travel ban lifted Nov 2025, no trial date, Russia case opened Feb 2026

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Toncoin (TON)?
TON scores 110 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 94th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
What are TON's strongest fundamentals?
TON ranks highest on Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Social Mindshare 8/10, 5th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251 and Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the TON thesis?
TON scores in the bottom third of the universe on Insider Selling 2/10, 242nd of 251, Holder Concentration 2/10, 240th of 251, Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Believers $61M/mo releases (27mo left), 1.08B frozen wallets unfreeze Feb 2027, Durov 12 charges, 85% whale concentration, zero protocol revenue
How much TON supply is still to enter circulation?
52.4% of eventual TON supply is circulating today, leaving 1.91x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 47.6% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is TON from its all-time high?
TON trades 83.2% below its all-time high of $8.25. Returning to that high requires a 6x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to TON?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to TON are WLD (89), SOL (170), TAO (128) and GRASS (111). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What catalyst was TON scored against?
GRAM rebrand Jun 15, TON Teleport BTC bridge, TON Pay 2.0, MTONGA steps 5-7, Stars-to-TON fiat onramp This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Jun 15 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.