Solana (SOL)
High-throughput L1 with dominant DEX volume and meme coin launchpad traction. Network reliability improved significantly post-2023.
Ranked 6th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
SOL scores 170 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 6th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
SOL is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Social Mindshare 9/10, 2nd of 251, Exchange Depth 9/10, 3rd of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251.
92.7% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for SOL. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
SOL is 60.3% off its all-time high of $293.31, a 2.5x round trip from here.
The framework score gained 12 points against the previous pass (158 to 170). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$8.50B sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 8.07 dollars of token market cap.
SOL's strengths split in two. Active Users, Market Share, Institutional Adoption, Exchange Depth and 2 more are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Vesting Schedule and Real Staking Yield are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 7 | 10th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 7 | 5th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 5 | 61st of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 7 | 35th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 7 | 46th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 4 | 40th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 8 | 7th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 5 | 42nd of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 7 | 11th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 8 | 4th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 8 | 4th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 7 | 17th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 9 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 9 | 2nd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 6 | 6th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
Spot SOL ETFs live since October 2025, so the open question is flows rather than approval; Firedancer live on mainnet with stake-weighted adoption still ramping
The October 2025 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Continued VC vesting pressure; centralization concerns with validator concentration
Market and supply
| Price | $116.37 |
| Market cap | $68.57Brank 7 |
| All-time high | $293.3119 Jan 2025 |
| Circulating supply | 589,094,364 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 635,382,237 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.08x |
| Total value locked | $8.50B |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to SOL measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
SOL compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [Dune Analytics] Solana DEX volume exceeded $500B in 2025
- [Jump Crypto] Firedancer validator client targets 1M TPS throughput
- [Staking Rewards] Solana staking yield approximately 5.0% to 5.3% annually
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Solana (SOL)?
- SOL scores 170 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 6th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are SOL's strongest fundamentals?
- SOL ranks highest on Developer Activity 8/10, 1st of 251, Social Mindshare 9/10, 2nd of 251, Exchange Depth 9/10, 3rd of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- How much SOL supply is still to enter circulation?
- 92.7% of eventual SOL supply is circulating today, leaving 1.08x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 7.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is SOL from its all-time high?
- SOL trades 60.3% below its all-time high of $293.31. Returning to that high requires a 2.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to SOL?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to SOL are TON (110), WLD (89), EIGEN (107) and TAO (128). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was SOL scored against?
- Spot SOL ETFs live since October 2025, so the open question is flows rather than approval; Firedancer live on mainnet with stake-weighted adoption still ramping This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The October 2025 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.