Ethena (ENA)
USDe supply crashed 65% from $12B peak. BaFin banned under MiCA. Brutal vesting schedule.
Ranked 68th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
ENA scores 120 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 68th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
The score rests on Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251, Exchange Depth 7/10, 12th of 251, Institutional Adoption 7/10, 17th of 251 and Market Share 7/10, 20th of 251.
Against the same universe, ENA sits in the bottom third on Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
89.4% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for ENA. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.
ENA trades 85% below its all-time high of $1.52. Recovering that level is a 6.7x move, not a 85% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 73 points against the previous pass (47 to 120). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$4.20B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
ENA is strong on Market Share, Institutional Adoption and Exchange Depth, and those are variables the market demonstrably pays for across the rated universe. Most of that quality is already in the price. Its weaknesses sit in Supply Inflation, Vesting Schedule, Buyback and Burn and Insider Selling, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 5 | 37th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 3 | 199th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 2 | 223rd of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 4 | 203rd of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 3 | 63rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 3 | 201st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 4 | 58th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 3 | 111th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 5 | 83rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 5 | 52nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 7 | 20th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 7 | 17th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 3 | 237th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 5 | 74th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Grayscale 13.59% allocation, Arthur Hayes $1.97M investment, BlackRock UStb
Principal risk
S&P 1,250% Basel III risk weight, BaFin ban, only 55% circ, -93% from ATH
Market and supply
| Price | $0.2282 |
| Market cap | $3.06Brank 40 |
| All-time high | $1.5211 Apr 2024 |
| Circulating supply | 13,406,250,000 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 15,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.12x |
| Total value locked | $4.20B |
| Listed on | Binance, MEXC, Gate.io |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to ENA measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
ENA compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [Token Terminal] USDe supply crashed 65% from $12B peak, Q1 revenue -32% QoQ
- [S&P Global] S&P assigned 1,250% Basel III risk weighting
- [CoinDesk] BaFin barred USDe under MiCA in Germany
- [Grayscale] Grayscale 13.59% allocation, but BlackRock backs UStb not ENA token
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Ethena (ENA)?
- ENA scores 120 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 68th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
- What are ENA's strongest fundamentals?
- ENA ranks highest on Smart Money Flows 7/10, 12th of 251, Exchange Depth 7/10, 12th of 251, Institutional Adoption 7/10, 17th of 251 and Market Share 7/10, 20th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the ENA thesis?
- ENA scores in the bottom third of the universe on Regulatory Safety 3/10, 237th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: S&P 1,250% Basel III risk weight, BaFin ban, only 55% circ, -93% from ATH
- How much ENA supply is still to enter circulation?
- 89.4% of eventual ENA supply is circulating today, leaving 1.12x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 10.6% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is ENA from its all-time high?
- ENA trades 85% below its all-time high of $1.52. Returning to that high requires a 6.7x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to ENA?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ENA are SOL (170), GRASS (111), TAO (128) and TON (110). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for ENA?
- Grayscale 13.59% allocation, Arthur Hayes $1.97M investment, BlackRock UStb
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.