PancakeSwap (CAKE)
BSC's dominant DEX with $1.5B TVL and real fee revenue; aggressive CAKE burn ongoing but BNB network dependence limits upside.
Ranked 56th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
CAKE scores 123 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 56th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
CAKE is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, Protocol Revenue 6/10, 21st of 251 and Buyback and Burn 6/10, 23rd of 251.
Against the same universe, CAKE sits in the bottom third on Vesting Schedule 4/10, 181st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 79.6% of CAKE's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.26x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 20.4% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
CAKE trades 95% below its all-time high of $43.96. Recovering that level is a 20x move, not a 95% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 16 points against the previous pass (107 to 123). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$1.50B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
CAKE clears 7 of 10 on none of the 25 variables. Its best three are Real Staking Yield at 6, Protocol Revenue at 6, Buyback and Burn at 6. The market prices none of those, so there is nothing here it is failing to notice either. This is a low score on things nobody is bidding for. It is weak on Institutional Adoption, which the market does price, so that damage is already done and visible in the valuation.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 5 | 32nd of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 6 | 17th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 4 | 146th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 4 | 181st of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 5 | 135th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 4 | 93rd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 5 | 42nd of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 5 | 30th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 5 | 83rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 5 | 52nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 6 | 36th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 3 | 115th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 6 | 37th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 4 | 86th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 5 | 102nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 5 | 50th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 5 | 74th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 5 | 74th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
PancakeSwap v4 with concentrated liquidity; multi-chain expansion to Base, zkSync, Linea
Principal risk
97% below ATH; BNB chain activity fragile; veCAKE tokenomics still inflationary net of burns; Uniswap competition intensifying on every chain
Market and supply
| Price | $2.19 |
| Market cap | $698.0Mrank 94 |
| All-time high | $43.9630 Apr 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 318,317,196 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 400,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.26x |
| Total value locked | $1.50B |
| Listed on | Binance, PancakeSwap DEX, OKX, Gate.io |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to CAKE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
CAKE compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] PancakeSwap maintains $1.5B TVL across BSC, Ethereum, and 6+ additional chains as of May 2026
- [PancakeSwap Blog] PancakeSwap v4 launched with concentrated liquidity and hooks network for custom pool logiclink dead, claim unverified
- [PancakeSwap Kitchen] CAKE weekly burn rate consistently reduces circulating supply via kitchen buyback-and-burn mechanism
One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 5 Oct 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for PancakeSwap (CAKE)?
- CAKE scores 123 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 56th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
- What are CAKE's strongest fundamentals?
- CAKE ranks highest on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, Protocol Revenue 6/10, 21st of 251 and Buyback and Burn 6/10, 23rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the CAKE thesis?
- CAKE scores in the bottom third of the universe on Vesting Schedule 4/10, 181st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: 97% below ATH; BNB chain activity fragile; veCAKE tokenomics still inflationary net of burns; Uniswap competition intensifying on every chain
- How much CAKE supply is still to enter circulation?
- 79.6% of eventual CAKE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.26x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 20.4% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is CAKE from its all-time high?
- CAKE trades 95% below its all-time high of $43.96. Returning to that high requires a 20x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to CAKE?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to CAKE are ETHFI (162), AERO (157), VELO (121) and TRX (125). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for CAKE?
- PancakeSwap v4 with concentrated liquidity; multi-chain expansion to Base, zkSync, Linea
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.