CAUTIOUS HOLD

PancakeSwap (CAKE)

BSC's dominant DEX with $1.5B TVL and real fee revenue; aggressive CAKE burn ongoing but BNB network dependence limits upside.

Ranked 56th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
123/250
56th of 251
Percentile
78.1%
of the rated universe
Circulating
80.5%
19.5% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-96.8%
31.2x to recover
BNB ChainBEP-20+16 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

CAKE scores 123 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 56th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

CAKE is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, Protocol Revenue 6/10, 21st of 251 and Buyback and Burn 6/10, 23rd of 251.

Against the same universe, CAKE sits in the bottom third on Vesting Schedule 4/10, 181st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 80.5% of CAKE's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.24x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 19.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

CAKE trades 96.8% below its all-time high of $43.96. Recovering that level is a 31.2x move, not a 96.8% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 16 points against the previous pass (107 to 123). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$1.50B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
621st of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
538th of 251
Real Staking Yield
617th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
4146th of 251
Vesting Schedule
4181st of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
5135th of 251
Buyback and Burn
623rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
493rd of 251
Insider Selling
542nd of 251
Holder Concentration
510th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
530th of 251
Active Users
538th of 251
Developer Activity
583rd of 251
Network Growth
552nd of 251

Position

Position variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
636th of 251
Competitive Moat
557th of 251
Institutional Adoption
3115th of 251
Exchange Depth
637th of 251
Social Mindshare
486th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for CAKE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
5102nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
550th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
445th of 251
Team Execution
574th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

PancakeSwap v4 with concentrated liquidity; multi-chain expansion to Base, zkSync, Linea

Principal risk

97% below ATH; BNB chain activity fragile; veCAKE tokenomics still inflationary net of burns; Uniswap competition intensifying on every chain

04

Market and supply

Price$1.40
Market cap$451.3Mrank 104
All-time high$43.9630 Apr 2021
Circulating supply322,034,256
Eventual supply (max supply)400,000,000
Dilution to full supply1.24x
Total value locked$1.50B
Listed onBinance, PancakeSwap DEX, OKX, Gate.io

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to CAKE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [DeFiLlama] PancakeSwap maintains $1.5B TVL across BSC, Ethereum, and 6+ additional chains as of May 2026
  • [PancakeSwap Blog] PancakeSwap v4 launched with concentrated liquidity and hooks network for custom pool logiclink dead, claim unverified
  • [PancakeSwap Kitchen] CAKE weekly burn rate consistently reduces circulating supply via kitchen buyback-and-burn mechanism

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for PancakeSwap (CAKE)?
CAKE scores 123 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 56th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are CAKE's strongest fundamentals?
CAKE ranks highest on Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251, Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251, Protocol Revenue 6/10, 21st of 251 and Buyback and Burn 6/10, 23rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the CAKE thesis?
CAKE scores in the bottom third of the universe on Vesting Schedule 4/10, 181st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: 97% below ATH; BNB chain activity fragile; veCAKE tokenomics still inflationary net of burns; Uniswap competition intensifying on every chain
How much CAKE supply is still to enter circulation?
80.5% of eventual CAKE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.24x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 19.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is CAKE from its all-time high?
CAKE trades 96.8% below its all-time high of $43.96. Returning to that high requires a 31.2x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to CAKE?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to CAKE are ETHFI (162), AERO (157), VELO (121) and TRX (125). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for CAKE?
PancakeSwap v4 with concentrated liquidity; multi-chain expansion to Base, zkSync, Linea

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.