Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
Base's dominant DEX capturing ~60% of chain volume with real fee revenue and veAERO flywheel locking supply
Ranked 16th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
AERO scores 157 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 16th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
AERO is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Real Staking Yield 8/10, 3rd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251.
Only 50.2% of AERO's total supply is in circulation, so 1.99x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 49.8% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
AERO is 65.7% off its all-time high of $2.32, a 2.9x round trip from here.
The framework score gained 12 points against the previous pass (145 to 157). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$820.0M sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
AERO's strengths split in two. Active Users and Market Share are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Real Staking Yield are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 8 | 5th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 7 | 6th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 6 | 23rd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 8 | 3rd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 4 | 146th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 5 | 100th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 5 | 135th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 6 | 1st of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 7 | 11th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 7 | 12th of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 7 | 20th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 5 | 36th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 5 | 73rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 5 | 13th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 8 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Base TVL growth and Coinbase network expansion driving sustained fee revenue above $1M/day peaks
Principal risk
Velodrome V3 migration on Optimism could siphon developer mindshare; token inflation from emissions remains elevated
Market and supply
| Price | $0.7947 |
| Market cap | $794.7Mrank 87 |
| All-time high | $2.327 Dec 2024 |
| Circulating supply | 999,879,382 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 1,992,844,978 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.99x |
| Total value locked | $820.0M |
| Listed on | Bybit, Kraken, Uniswap |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to AERO measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
AERO compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DefiLlama] Aerodrome generated over $1M in daily fees at peak, dominant on Base chain with ~60% DEX market sharelink dead, claim unverified
- [DefiLlama TVL] VeAERO locking mechanism reduces circulating supply pressure; TVL consistently above $800M in Q1 2026
- [Aerodrome Docs] Aerodrome is the official Velodrome V2 deployment on Base, backed by Optimism network
One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 5 Oct 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Aerodrome Finance (AERO)?
- AERO scores 157 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 16th of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are AERO's strongest fundamentals?
- AERO ranks highest on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Real Staking Yield 8/10, 3rd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- How much AERO supply is still to enter circulation?
- 50.2% of eventual AERO supply is circulating today, leaving 1.99x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 49.8% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is AERO from its all-time high?
- AERO trades 65.7% below its all-time high of $2.32. Returning to that high requires a 2.9x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to AERO?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AERO are DRIFT (142), GEOD (169), BERA (127) and CAKE (123). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for AERO?
- Base TVL growth and Coinbase network expansion driving sustained fee revenue above $1M/day peaks
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.