HOLD

Aerodrome Finance (AERO)

Base's dominant DEX capturing ~60% of chain volume with real fee revenue and veAERO flywheel locking supply

Ranked 16th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
157/250
16th of 251
Percentile
94%
of the rated universe
Circulating
49.8%
50.2% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-81%
5.3x to recover
BaseERC-20+12 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

AERO scores 157 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 16th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.

AERO is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Real Staking Yield 8/10, 3rd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251.

Only 49.8% of AERO's total supply is in circulation, so 2.01x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 50.2% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

AERO trades 81% below its all-time high of $2.32. Recovering that level is a 5.3x move, not a 81% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 12 points against the previous pass (145 to 157). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$820.0M sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
85th of 251
Revenue Trend
76th of 251
P/S Multiple
623rd of 251
Real Staking Yield
83rd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
4146th of 251
Vesting Schedule
5100th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
5135th of 251
Buyback and Burn
623rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
712th of 251
Insider Selling
621st of 251
Holder Concentration
61st of 251

Traction

Traction variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
711th of 251
Active Users
78th of 251
Developer Activity
79th of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
720th of 251
Competitive Moat
714th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
623rd of 251

Risk

Risk variables for AERO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
652nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
629th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
513th of 251
Team Execution
83rd of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Base TVL growth and Coinbase network expansion driving sustained fee revenue above $1M/day peaks

Principal risk

Velodrome V3 migration on Optimism could siphon developer mindshare; token inflation from emissions remains elevated

04

Market and supply

Price$0.4403
Market cap$428.1Mrank 106
All-time high$2.327 Dec 2024
Circulating supply973,216,697
Eventual supply (total supply)1,954,641,366
Dilution to full supply2.01x
Total value locked$820.0M
Listed onBybit, Kraken, Uniswap

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to AERO measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [DefiLlama] Aerodrome generated over $1M in daily fees at peak, dominant on Base chain with ~60% DEX market sharelink dead, claim unverified
  • [DefiLlama TVL] veAERO locking mechanism reduces circulating supply pressure; TVL consistently above $800M in Q1 2026
  • [Aerodrome Docs] Aerodrome is the official Velodrome V2 deployment on Base, backed by Optimism network

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Aerodrome Finance (AERO)?
AERO scores 157 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 16th of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
What are AERO's strongest fundamentals?
AERO ranks highest on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, Real Staking Yield 8/10, 3rd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
How much AERO supply is still to enter circulation?
49.8% of eventual AERO supply is circulating today, leaving 2.01x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 50.2% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is AERO from its all-time high?
AERO trades 81% below its all-time high of $2.32. Returning to that high requires a 5.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to AERO?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to AERO are DRIFT (142), GEOD (169), BERA (127) and CAKE (123). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for AERO?
Base TVL growth and Coinbase network expansion driving sustained fee revenue above $1M/day peaks

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.