What is the Early Thunder score for CoW Protocol (COW)?

COW scores 167 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 9th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD.

How much COW supply is still to enter circulation?

57.5% of eventual COW supply is circulating today, leaving 1.74x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 42.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.

How far is COW from its all-time high?

COW trades 95.3% below its all-time high of $2.22. Returning to that high requires a 21.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.

Which tokens have a similar profile to COW?

Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to COW are FLUID (145), GMX (143), MLN (104) and GNS (116). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.

HOLD

CoW Protocol (COW)

Name: CoW Protocol (COW) 25-variable fundamental scorecard
Creator: Early Thunder

Intent-based batch auction DEX. $87B vol 2025. P/S 3.1x. Net deflationary. Vesting complete.

Ranked 9th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score

167/250

9th of 251

Percentile

96.8%

of the rated universe

Circulating

57.5%

42.5% of value still to vest

Off all-time high

-95.3%

21.3x to recover

EthereumERC-20+17 since last pass

What the numbers say

COW scores 167 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 9th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.

COW is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, P/S Multiple 8/10, 2nd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Treasury Runway 8/10, 4th of 251.

Only 57.5% of COW's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.74x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 42.5% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

COW trades 95.3% below its all-time high of $2.22. Recovering that level is a 21.3x move, not a 95.3% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 17 points against the previous pass (150 to 167). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$367.3K sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 164.82 dollars of token market cap.

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue	7	10th of 251
Revenue Trend	7	6th of 251
P/S Multiple	8	2nd of 251
Real Staking Yield	4	82nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation	8	8th of 251
Vesting Schedule	9	8th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio	7	46th of 251
Buyback and Burn	7	13th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows	7	12th of 251
Insider Selling	7	8th of 251
Holder Concentration	6	1st of 251

Traction

Traction variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend	5	30th of 251
Active Users	7	8th of 251
Developer Activity	7	9th of 251
Network Growth	7	12th of 251

Position

Position variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share	6	36th of 251
Competitive Moat	8	5th of 251
Institutional Adoption	7	17th of 251
Exchange Depth	5	73rd of 251
Social Mindshare	5	41st of 251

Risk

Risk variables for COW, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety	7	17th of 251
Catalyst Calendar	7	15th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential	3	114th of 251
Team Execution	8	3rd of 251
Treasury Runway	8	4th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Burn proposal (60-85M COW), chain expansion (10 chains), Aave integration, xStocks tokenized equities

Principal risk

CoW AMM collapsed (-98% TVL), thin exchange volume ($138K/day), market share declining from peak, DNS hijack Apr 2026

Market and supply

Price	$0.1054
Market cap	$60.5Mrank 364
All-time high	$2.2228 Mar 2022
Circulating supply	575,229,467
Eventual supply (max supply)	1,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply	1.74x
Total value locked	$367.3K
Listed on	Binance, Kraken, CoW Swap

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to COW measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

FLUID145/250

Fluid (Instadapp)

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 74%

GMX143/250

GMX

HOLD · profile match 68%

MLN104/250

Enzyme (Melon)

WATCH · profile match 62%

GNS116/250

Gains Network

WATCH · profile match 62%

PROP93/250

Propy

PASS · profile match 57%

RENDER127/250

Render Network

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 57%

Sources

[CoW DAO 2025 Review] $87B trading volume in 2025 (2.2x YoY from $40.2B). $202B all-time cumulative
[DeFiLlama] $26.2M annualized revenue, $42M all-time DAO revenue
[CoW DAO May 2026 Recap] Net deflationary: 78.6M COW bought back vs 66.6M emitted (-12M net, Apr 2024-May 2026)
[CoW DAO] #2 DEX aggregator at 16.8% market share (behind 0x API at 18.7%)
[CoW DAO May 2026 Recap] $1.21B surplus returned to users all-time (MEV protection metric)
[CryptoRank / CoW Docs] All vesting complete March 28, 2026. 4-year linear schedule concluded
[CryptoTimes] Burn proposal: 60-85M COW from 357M DAO treasury through Dec 2026
[The Block] Aave integration: all swaps on aave.com routed through CoW solvers

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for CoW Protocol (COW)?: COW scores 167 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 9th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
What are COW's strongest fundamentals?: COW ranks highest on Holder Concentration 6/10, 1st of 251, P/S Multiple 8/10, 2nd of 251, Team Execution 8/10, 3rd of 251 and Treasury Runway 8/10, 4th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
How much COW supply is still to enter circulation?: 57.5% of eventual COW supply is circulating today, leaving 1.74x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 42.5% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is COW from its all-time high?: COW trades 95.3% below its all-time high of $2.22. Returning to that high requires a 21.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to COW?: Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to COW are FLUID (145), GMX (143), MLN (104) and GNS (116). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for COW?: Burn proposal (60-85M COW), chain expansion (10 chains), Aave integration, xStocks tokenized equities

Keep reading

CoW Protocol full research noteOn-chain detail, team, tokenomics, competitive position and the standing verdict.Every token rated HOLDThe full band ranked by score, with what the group is collectively strong and weak on.All 251 rated tokensThe full ranking table and the method behind the 25 variables.

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.