Lighter (LIT)
ZK perp DEX, up sharply this week to a $534M cap. But farming revenue fell ~70% to ~$26-30M annualized, so P/S re-rated to a rich ~18-20x. New Jul 2026 buyback-and-burn + 6% staking target vs a Dec 2026 cliff that vests 50% of supply at ~13.9M LIT/month.
Ranked 54th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
LIT scores 125 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 54th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.
LIT is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Smart Money Flows 8/10, 7th of 251, P/S Multiple 7/10, 9th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251 and Protocol Revenue 7/10, 10th of 251.
Against the same universe, LIT sits in the bottom third on Holder Concentration 2/10, 240th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 25% of LIT's maximum supply is in circulation, so 4x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 75% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
LIT is 71.5% off its all-time high of $7.86, a 3.5x round trip from here.
$519.5M sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 1.08 dollars of token market cap.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 7 | 10th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 2 | 199th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 5 | 61st of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 2 | 223rd of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 3 | 225th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 8 | 7th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 3 | 201st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 2 | 240th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 4 | 65th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 5 | 52nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 4 | 87th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 7 | 17th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 6 | 37th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 5 | 102nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 7 | 15th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 2 | 200th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Lighter EVM Q2-Q3 2026, Telegram Wallet 150M users, CFTC license pursuit, potential Binance listing
Principal risk
Dec 2026 cliff releases 500M tokens (50% supply), 83% volume collapse from TGE peak, only 4,420 holders, L2BEAT Stage 0
Market and supply
| Price | $2.24 |
| Market cap | $559.2Mrank 91 |
| All-time high | $7.8630 Dec 2025 |
| Circulating supply | 250,000,000 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 1,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 4x |
| Total value locked | $519.5M |
| Listed on | Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, KuCoin, Gate.io, Bitget, MEXC |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to LIT measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [DeFi Llama] $77-101M annualized revenue (fees), $44.96B 30d perp volume
- [Lighter Blog] $89M total raised: $21M Series A (Haun/Craft), $68M Series B at $1.5B (Founders Fund/Ribbit)
- [elliottech GitHub] Custom Plonky2 STARK + Gnark Plonk/BN254 ZK rollup, open-sourced Dec 2025
- [L2BEAT] L2BEAT Stage 0: 4/7 multisig can bypass 21-day upgrade delay, centralized sequencer
- [CryptoRank] 83% volume collapse from $232B/mo TGE peak to $39-45B/mo
- [Arkham Intelligence] Justin Sun accumulated 14.89M LIT ($39.8M), withdrew $152M from LP
- [The Block] Telegram Wallet integration for 150M+ registered users
- [Lighter/LinkedIn] Vlad Novakovski: Harvard at 16, graduated 18, recruited by Ken Griffin to Citadel
- [Crypto Times] July 1 2026 buyback-and-burn + 6% staking target
- [CoinGecko] LIT ~$2.14, ~$534M mcap (2026-07-02)
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Lighter (LIT)?
- LIT scores 125 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 54th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is WATCH.
- What are LIT's strongest fundamentals?
- LIT ranks highest on Smart Money Flows 8/10, 7th of 251, P/S Multiple 7/10, 9th of 251, Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251 and Protocol Revenue 7/10, 10th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the LIT thesis?
- LIT scores in the bottom third of the universe on Holder Concentration 2/10, 240th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251, Vesting Schedule 2/10, 223rd of 251 and Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Dec 2026 cliff releases 500M tokens (50% supply), 83% volume collapse from TGE peak, only 4,420 holders, L2BEAT Stage 0
- How much LIT supply is still to enter circulation?
- 25% of eventual LIT supply is circulating today, leaving 4x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 75% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is LIT from its all-time high?
- LIT trades 71.5% below its all-time high of $7.86. Returning to that high requires a 3.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to LIT?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to LIT are ZRO (106), IO (108), LINK (165) and ENA (120). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for LIT?
- Lighter EVM Q2-Q3 2026, Telegram Wallet 150M users, CFTC license pursuit, potential Binance listing
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.