What is the Early Thunder score for Cosmos (ATOM)?

ATOM scores 96 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 161st of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is PASS.

What are the weakest parts of the ATOM thesis?

ATOM scores in the bottom third of the universe on P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251, Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Neutron left ICS, Noble exiting to EVM, Sei disabled IBC, $5.4M Gravity Bridge exploit, P/S 17,637x, unlimited supply with 7% inflation, named security in SEC v Binance/Coinbase

How much ATOM supply is still to enter circulation?

100% of eventual ATOM supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.

How far is ATOM from its all-time high?

ATOM trades 96.9% below its all-time high of $43.84. Returning to that high requires a 32.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.

Which tokens have a similar profile to ATOM?

Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ATOM are PRIME (119), NEAR (135), FET (109) and BICO (109). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.

PASS

Cosmos (ATOM)

Name: Cosmos (ATOM) 25-variable fundamental scorecard
Creator: Early Thunder

Cosmos SDK #3 dev network globally but broken value accrual. $240K Hub TVL on $889M mcap. ICS revenue real but tiny ($526K/yr). Prop 848 inflation cap helps. Both cofounders gone. Named security in SEC lawsuits.

Ranked 161st of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score

96/250

161st of 251

Percentile

36.3%

of the rated universe

Circulating

100%

0% of value still to vest

Off all-time high

-96.9%

32.3x to recover

CosmosNative L1+5 since last pass

What the numbers say

ATOM scores 96 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 161st of 251 rated tokens and inside the lower half of the set. The framework verdict is PASS.

The score rests on Revenue Trend 5/10, 32nd of 251, Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Smart Money Flows 5/10, 48th of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251.

Against the same universe, ATOM sits in the bottom third on P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251, Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

100% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for ATOM. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.

ATOM trades 96.9% below its all-time high of $43.84. Recovering that level is a 32.3x move, not a 96.9% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 5 points against the previous pass (91 to 96). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$240.0K sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 2941.37 dollars of token market cap.

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue	4	60th of 251
Revenue Trend	5	32nd of 251
P/S Multiple	2	218th of 251
Real Staking Yield	4	82nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation	4	146th of 251
Vesting Schedule	6	59th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio	4	203rd of 251
Buyback and Burn	1	205th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows	5	48th of 251
Insider Selling	3	201st of 251
Holder Concentration	4	58th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend	3	111th of 251
Active Users	3	149th of 251
Developer Activity	6	33rd of 251
Network Growth	4	100th of 251

Position

Position variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share	4	87th of 251
Competitive Moat	3	175th of 251
Institutional Adoption	4	71st of 251
Exchange Depth	5	73rd of 251
Social Mindshare	3	157th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for ATOM, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety	4	213th of 251
Catalyst Calendar	5	50th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential	2	200th of 251
Team Execution	4	147th of 251
Treasury Runway	4	181st of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Tokenomics redesign RFP (9 proposals), SDK v0.54 shipping, IBC-Solana bridge Q2, PSS (ICS 2.0), Cosmoverse Nov 2026

Principal risk

Neutron left ICS, Noble exiting to EVM, Sei disabled IBC, $5.4M Gravity Bridge exploit, P/S 17,637x, unlimited supply with 7% inflation, named security in SEC v Binance/Coinbase

Market and supply

Price	$1.35
Market cap	$705.9Mrank 81
All-time high	$43.8419 Sept 2021
Circulating supply	523,529,893
Eventual supply (total supply)	523,538,154
Dilution to full supply	1x
Total value locked	$240.0K
Listed on	Binance, Coinbase, OKX

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to ATOM measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

PRIME119/250

Echelon Prime

WATCH · profile match 64%

NEAR135/250

NEAR Protocol

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 56%

FET109/250

Fetch.ai (ASI Alliance)

WATCH · profile match 56%

BICO109/250

Biconomy

WATCH · profile match 55%

CRV140/250

Curve Finance

HOLD · profile match 55%

AKT129/250

Akash Network

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 54%

Sources

[DeFiLlama] $240K TVL on Cosmos Hub
[CoinGecko] ATH $43.84 (Sep 20, 2021)
[Electric Capital Developer Report 2025] Cosmos SDK 15,897 commits, 900+ monthly active devs, #3 globally
[Cosmos SDK GitHub] SDK v0.54.3 released May 2026
[Mintscan Governance] Prop 848 reduced max inflation from 20% to 10%
[Cosmos Hub documentation] ICS revenue: Neutron 25%, Stride 15% fee share
[Neutron governance] Neutron left ICS (graduated to sovereignty Apr 2025)
[Gravity Bridge post-mortem] Gravity Bridge $5.4M exploit (May 30, 2026)
[Cosmos Labs blog] Cosmos Labs acquired Mintscan, formed Korea subsidiary (Jun 4, 2026)
[Leap Wallet announcement] Leap Wallet shutdown (May 28, 2026)
[Noble announcement] Noble exiting Cosmos for EVM L1
[SEC Release 33-11412] ATOM NOT included in SEC Release 33-11412 safe harborlink dead, claim unverified

3 of the source links above no longer resolve, so we stripped those hyperlinks rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Cosmos (ATOM)?: ATOM scores 96 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 161st of 251 rated tokens (lower half). The framework verdict is PASS.
What are ATOM's strongest fundamentals?: ATOM ranks highest on Revenue Trend 5/10, 32nd of 251, Developer Activity 6/10, 33rd of 251, Smart Money Flows 5/10, 48th of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 5/10, 50th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the ATOM thesis?: ATOM scores in the bottom third of the universe on P/S Multiple 2/10, 218th of 251, Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Neutron left ICS, Noble exiting to EVM, Sei disabled IBC, $5.4M Gravity Bridge exploit, P/S 17,637x, unlimited supply with 7% inflation, named security in SEC v Binance/Coinbase
How much ATOM supply is still to enter circulation?: 100% of eventual ATOM supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is ATOM from its all-time high?: ATOM trades 96.9% below its all-time high of $43.84. Returning to that high requires a 32.3x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to ATOM?: Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ATOM are PRIME (119), NEAR (135), FET (109) and BICO (109). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for ATOM?: Tokenomics redesign RFP (9 proposals), SDK v0.54 shipping, IBC-Solana bridge Q2, PSS (ICS 2.0), Cosmoverse Nov 2026

Keep reading

Cosmos full research noteOn-chain detail, team, tokenomics, competitive position and the standing verdict.Every token rated PASSThe full band ranked by score, with what the group is collectively strong and weak on.All 251 rated tokensThe full ranking table and the method behind the 25 variables.

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.