Hyperliquid (HYPE)
3 ETFs live (THYP, BHYP, HYPG, about $253M combined AUM).
About $600M annualised revenue after four straight quarterly declines, with builder fees now taking 18% of gross before buybacks. about 32% to 37% DEX perps share, down from roughly 70% in 2025. But closed-source, FCA warning, 22% circ.
Ranked 1st of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
HYPE scores 193 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 1st of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
HYPE is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Protocol Revenue 10/10, 1st of 251, Buyback and Burn 10/10, 1st of 251, Institutional Adoption 10/10, 1st of 251 and Team Execution 10/10, 1st of 251.
Against the same universe, HYPE sits in the bottom third on Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 22.2% of HYPE's maximum supply is in circulation, so 4.5x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 77.8% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
HYPE is 9.6% off its all-time high of $97.96, a 1.1x round trip from here.
The framework score gained 8 points against the previous pass (185 to 193). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$5.88B sits in the protocol. Each dollar of value locked carries 3.35 dollars of token market cap.
HYPE's strengths split in two. Active Users, Market Share, Institutional Adoption, Exchange Depth and 2 more are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. P/S Multiple, Buyback and Burn and Real Staking Yield are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 7 | 5th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 5 | 61st of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 5 | 100th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 4 | 203rd of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 10 | 1st of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 5 | 42nd of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| Active Users | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 6 | 33rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 9 | 1st of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 9 | 2nd of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 9 | 2nd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 4 | 213th of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 9 | 1st of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 10 | 1st of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 9 | 1st of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
3 ETFs accumulating, HIP-3 RWAs ($62B/mo volume), Coinbase USDC partnership, a16z $322M accumulation, ICE CEO 'bigger than NASDAQ'
Principal risk
Closed-source code, 22% circ w/ 428M S3 airdrop overhang, FCA unauthorized warning, JELLY exploit precedent (validators force-settled), Arthur Hayes $18M exit
Market and supply
| Price | $88.55 |
| Market cap | $19.71Brank 11 |
| All-time high | $97.9623 Sept 2026 |
| Circulating supply | 222,445,714 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 1,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 4.5x |
| Total value locked | $5.88B |
| Listed on | Bybit, OKX, Kraken, Bitget, THYP ETF (21Shares), BHYP ETF (Bitwise/NYSE), HYPG (Grayscale) |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to HYPE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
HYPE compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [Bloomberg/CoinDesk] 3 ETFs live: THYP (21Shares May 12), BHYP (Bitwise/NYSE May 15), HYPG (Grayscale, Nasdaq, 3 Jun 2026), combined about $253M AUM
- [Token Terminal / DeFi Llama] $800M-$1.3B annualized revenue (Q1 2026: $215M), 97-99% fees to buyback via Assistance Fund
- [DL News / Hypurrscan] $1.55B cumulative buybacks, 44.35M HYPE burned, net deflationary at current volumes
- [CoinDesk / The Block] A16z accumulated ~$322M in HYPE, Goldman Sachs holds PURR position
- [Arkham Intelligence] Arthur Hayes exited $18M HYPE position at $72+, Jun 4 2026
- [Fortune] ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher: Hyperliquid 'bigger than NASDAQ', met founderslink dead, claim unverified
- [CoinGecko / TradingView] ATH $76.87 (16 Jun 2026), +1,353pp BTC alpha since launch, negative BTC correlation
- [The Block / DeFi Llama] 70%+ DEX perpetuals market share, 7.5% of global perps including CEXs
- [LinkedIn / Hyperliquid Foundation] Jeff Yan (founder): Harvard CS, ex-Hudson River Trading. 11-person team, $64-73M revenue per employee
- [Electric Capital / Community Audits] Closed-source codebase, 27 validators, Foundation controls ~49-81% stakelink dead, claim unverified
- [The Block] JELLY exploit (Mar 2025): validators force-settled positions in 2 minutes, precedent for centralized intervention
- [FCA Register] FCA unauthorized warning (May 2026), US IP blocks perps access
2 of the source links above no longer resolve, so we stripped those hyperlinks rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 5 Oct 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Hyperliquid (HYPE)?
- HYPE scores 193 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 1st of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD CORE.
- What are HYPE's strongest fundamentals?
- HYPE ranks highest on Protocol Revenue 10/10, 1st of 251, Buyback and Burn 10/10, 1st of 251, Institutional Adoption 10/10, 1st of 251 and Team Execution 10/10, 1st of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the HYPE thesis?
- HYPE scores in the bottom third of the universe on Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251 and Circulating / FDV Ratio 4/10, 203rd of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Closed-source code, 22% circ w/ 428M S3 airdrop overhang, FCA unauthorized warning, JELLY exploit precedent (validators force-settled), Arthur Hayes $18M exit
- How much HYPE supply is still to enter circulation?
- 22.2% of eventual HYPE supply is circulating today, leaving 4.5x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 77.8% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is HYPE from its all-time high?
- HYPE trades 9.6% below its all-time high of $97.96. Returning to that high requires a 1.1x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to HYPE?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to HYPE are ENA (120), EIGEN (107), DRIFT (142) and ZRO (106). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for HYPE?
- 3 ETFs accumulating, HIP-3 RWAs ($62B/mo volume), Coinbase USDC partnership, a16z $322M accumulation, ICE CEO 'bigger than NASDAQ'
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.