Lido DAO (LDO)
Dominant LST protocol at $21B TVL with real staking revenue; fee switch vote pending but token accrual still weak.
Ranked 23rd of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 18 Sept 2026.
What the numbers say
LDO scores 146 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 23rd of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
LDO is a top-10 name in the set on 3 variables. The score rests on Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251, Protocol Revenue 7/10, 10th of 251, Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251 and Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251.
Only 83% of LDO's maximum supply is in circulation, so 1.21x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 17% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
LDO trades 94.2% below its all-time high of $7.30. Recovering that level is a 17.2x move, not a 94.2% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 26 points against the previous pass (120 to 146). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
$21.50B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
LDO's strengths split in two. Market Share and Exchange Depth are variables the market already pays up for, so that part of the score is priced. Supply Inflation and Vesting Schedule are variables it does not price at all, and that is where holding this token is a disagreement with the market rather than an agreement with it. Its weaknesses sit in Buyback and Burn and Real Staking Yield, none of which the market is currently punishing. A risk nobody is charging for is still a risk.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 7 | 10th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 6 | 15th of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 5 | 38th of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 3 | 143rd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 7 | 26th of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 7 | 35th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 8 | 27th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 2 | 114th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 5 | 42nd of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 5 | 10th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 6 | 19th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 6 | 24th of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 6 | 33rd of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 8 | 4th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 7 | 14th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 5 | 41st of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 5 | 102nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 6 | 29th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 4 | 45th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
LDO fee switch enabling token buybacks or staker rewards expected Q3 2026
The Q3 2026 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 18 Sept 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Ethereum staking yield compression; regulatory risk on liquid staking; DVT transition diluting Lido moat
Market and supply
| Price | $0.4263 |
| Market cap | $353.8Mrank 132 |
| All-time high | $7.3020 Aug 2021 |
| Circulating supply | 829,567,764 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 1,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.21x |
| Total value locked | $21.50B |
| Listed on | Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Uniswap |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 7 Oct 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 18 Sept 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to LDO measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
LDO compared head to head
Both sides of each comparison were scored by the same framework in the same pass, so the gap between them is a measurement rather than two readings taken with different rulers.
Sources
- [DeFiLlama] Lido controls ~28% of all staked ETH with $21.5B TVL as of May 2026
- [Lido Forum] LDO fee switch governance proposal under active discussion in Lido DAO forums
- [Token Terminal] Lido generates ~$150M annualized protocol revenue from 10% ETH staking fee take
- [CoinGecko] LDO ATH $6.41 reached January 2024
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Lido DAO (LDO)?
- LDO scores 146 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 23rd of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are LDO's strongest fundamentals?
- LDO ranks highest on Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251, Protocol Revenue 7/10, 10th of 251, Holder Concentration 5/10, 10th of 251 and Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- How much LDO supply is still to enter circulation?
- 83% of eventual LDO supply is circulating today, leaving 1.21x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 17% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is LDO from its all-time high?
- LDO trades 94.2% below its all-time high of $7.30. Returning to that high requires a 17.2x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to LDO?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to LDO are CHZ (120), AR (140), BTC (183) and STG (117). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was LDO scored against?
- LDO fee switch enabling token buybacks or staker rewards expected Q3 2026 This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Q3 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.