WATCH

Ondo Finance (ONDO)

$3B RWA platform but ONDO token captures $0 revenue. 57.79% in one wallet. -73% in 12mo.

Ranked 84th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
115/250
84th of 251
Percentile
66.9%
of the rated universe
Circulating
48.7%
51.3% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-82.7%
5.8x to recover
EthereumERC-20+71 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

ONDO scores 115 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 84th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is WATCH.

ONDO is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251 and Institutional Adoption 9/10, 5th of 251.

Against the same universe, ONDO sits in the bottom third on Holder Concentration 1/10, 251st of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 2/10, 241st of 251 and P/S Multiple 1/10, 234th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 48.7% of ONDO's maximum supply is in circulation, so 2.05x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 51.3% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

ONDO trades 82.7% below its all-time high of $2.14. Recovering that level is a 5.8x move, not a 82.7% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

The framework score gained 71 points against the previous pass (44 to 115). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$3.00B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
2166th of 251
Revenue Trend
532nd of 251
P/S Multiple
1234th of 251
Real Staking Yield
1226th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
2228th of 251
Vesting Schedule
1244th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
2241st of 251
Buyback and Burn
1205th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
626th of 251
Insider Selling
3201st of 251
Holder Concentration
1251st of 251

Traction

Traction variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
91st of 251
Active Users
491st of 251
Developer Activity
4158th of 251
Network Growth
712th of 251

Position

Position variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
84th of 251
Competitive Moat
629th of 251
Institutional Adoption
95th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
623rd of 251

Risk

Risk variables for ONDO, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
86th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
83rd of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
445th of 251
Team Execution
712th of 251
Treasury Runway
574th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Catalyst on the scorecard

DTCC production trades July 2026, fee switch vote H2 2026, SEC probe closed

The July 2026 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 11 Jun 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Principal risk

Zero token revenue, 57.79% holder concentration, relentless open dilution through 2028

04

Market and supply

Price$0.3702
Market cap$1.80Brank 43
All-time high$2.1415 Dec 2024
Circulating supply4,869,330,647
Eventual supply (max supply)10,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply2.05x
Total value locked$3.00B
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, OKX

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to ONDO measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Ondo Finance (ONDO)?
ONDO scores 115 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 84th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is WATCH.
What are ONDO's strongest fundamentals?
ONDO ranks highest on TVL Trend 9/10, 1st of 251, Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251, Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251 and Institutional Adoption 9/10, 5th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the ONDO thesis?
ONDO scores in the bottom third of the universe on Holder Concentration 1/10, 251st of 251, Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251, Circulating / FDV Ratio 2/10, 241st of 251 and P/S Multiple 1/10, 234th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Zero token revenue, 57.79% holder concentration, relentless open dilution through 2028
How much ONDO supply is still to enter circulation?
48.7% of eventual ONDO supply is circulating today, leaving 2.05x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 51.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is ONDO from its all-time high?
ONDO trades 82.7% below its all-time high of $2.14. Returning to that high requires a 5.8x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to ONDO?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to ONDO are MORPHO (157), LINK (165), EIGEN (107) and SAFE (132). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What catalyst was ONDO scored against?
DTCC production trades July 2026, fee switch vote H2 2026, SEC probe closed This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The July 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.