CAUTIOUS HOLD

Sky (formerly Maker) (SKY)

VALIDATED: DeFi revenue leader ($246M net, P/S 5.4x) but headline '$435M' is GROSS before $165M SSR payouts. Buybacks slashed 87% until ~Nov 2026. Net inflationary 4.4%/yr. TVL declining $7.5B→$6.0B. S&P B-. #3 stablecoin ($12.9B). Revenue real but token value accrual IMPAIRED.

Ranked 30th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
141/250
30th of 251
Percentile
88.4%
of the rated universe
Circulating
99.7%
0.3% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-43.8%
1.8x to recover
EthereumERC-20-18 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

SKY scores 141 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 30th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top quartile of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.

SKY is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Treasury Runway 8/10, 4th of 251, Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251, Revenue Trend 7/10, 6th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 9/10, 8th of 251.

Against the same universe, SKY sits in the bottom third on Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251, Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

99.7% of eventual supply is already circulating, so vesting is not a live risk for SKY. Price has to be justified by demand rather than absorbed against a cliff.

SKY is 43.8% off its all-time high of $0.1005, a 1.8x round trip from here.

The framework score lost 18 points against the previous pass (159 to 141). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.

$6.02B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
85th of 251
Revenue Trend
76th of 251
P/S Multiple
79th of 251
Real Staking Yield
617th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
3199th of 251
Vesting Schedule
98th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
910th of 251
Buyback and Burn
440th of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
548th of 251
Insider Selling
621st of 251
Holder Concentration
3197th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
530th of 251
Active Users
491st of 251
Developer Activity
633rd of 251
Network Growth
632nd of 251

Position

Position variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
720th of 251
Competitive Moat
629th of 251
Institutional Adoption
89th of 251
Exchange Depth
4157th of 251
Social Mindshare
3157th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for SKY, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
4213th of 251
Catalyst Calendar
550th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
3114th of 251
Team Execution
574th of 251
Treasury Runway
84th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Buyback restoration ~Nov 2026 when Solvency Reserve hits $125M (currently $70.6M). Revenue still growing (Q1 record $61M net). SSR cut improves margins. Remaining 3 Stars. S&P upgrade path. Obex Cohort 2.

Principal risk

VALIDATED RISKS: Rune SPOF (80% governance, emergency proposals bypass process). Net inflationary ~4.4%/yr at current rates. Revenue $246M net but SKY captures only $97M (holders rev). TVL declining. NOT MiCA-compliant (Jul 2026 deadline). $756M USDC in unverifiable EOA. 35% of USDS is just wrapped USDC. All financials self-reported by Sky Foundation.

04

Market and supply

Price$0.0565
Market cap$1.32Brank 55
All-time high$0.10054 Dec 2024
Circulating supply23,392,534,840
Eventual supply (max supply)23,462,665,147
Dilution to full supply1x
Total value locked$6.02B
Listed onBinance, Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, Bybit, KuCoin

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to SKY measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [DeFiLlama] DeFiLlama LIVE: Annualized Fees $411M, Revenue (net after SSR) $246M, Holders Revenue $97M. 30d fees $31.43M
  • [PR Newswire (Sky Frontier Foundation)] Q1 2026: $123.79M GROSS, ~$61M NET, $46.04M surplus, 49.06% net margin (SFF PR Newswire)
  • [GlobalFintechSeries (SFF PR)] $435M is GROSS revenue (SFF self-reported Dec 2025). Net after SSR payouts = $246M. Not auditedlink dead, claim unverified
  • [Chainwire (SFF PR)] $611.5M forecast is SFF's OWN projection. Requires USDS doubling to $20.6B. Current $8.44B (DeFiLlama)link dead, claim unverified
  • [DeFiLlama] TVL $6.016B (DeFiLlama live Jun 14). Down from $7.52B peak Mar 2026 (-20%). Spark $4.45B (not $7.9B)
  • [CoinDesk / DL News] Smart Burn slashed 87%: Governance Poll 1620 (Mar 13-14, 2026). 300K→37.6K USDS/day. Reserve $70.6M of $125M
  • [Tokenomics.com / CoinDesk] Net inflationary: ~1,276M emissions/yr (600M USDS rewards + 676M staking) vs ~241M burns = 1,035M net inflation
  • [Sky Forum] SSR cut from 4.75% to 3.60% on May 26, 2026 (BA Labs recommendation, SP-BEAM #30)
  • [DeFiLlama Stablecoins API] USDS: DeFiLlama $8.44B vs CoinGecko $10.8B (includes DAI wrappers). DAI $4.42B. Combined $12.87B = #3
  • [CoinDesk] S&P B- rating Aug 11, 2025 (not Aug 7). Stablecoin Stability: 4 'constrained'. Compared to Congo bonds
  • [Rekt News / The Defiant] Rune emergency vote Feb 18, 2025: GSM 30h→18h, debt ceiling 20M→45M. Critics banned. Three Sigma: 'hostile takeover'
  • [CoinLaw / Cointelegraph] PSM holds $4.13B USDC (~35% of collateral). $756M USDC in EOA (Coinbase Custody MPC, keys allegedly destroyed)

2 of the source links above no longer resolve, so we stripped those hyperlinks rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Sky (formerly Maker) (SKY)?
SKY scores 141 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 30th of 251 rated tokens (top quartile). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
What are SKY's strongest fundamentals?
SKY ranks highest on Treasury Runway 8/10, 4th of 251, Protocol Revenue 8/10, 5th of 251, Revenue Trend 7/10, 6th of 251 and Vesting Schedule 9/10, 8th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the SKY thesis?
SKY scores in the bottom third of the universe on Regulatory Safety 4/10, 213th of 251, Supply Inflation 3/10, 199th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: VALIDATED RISKS: Rune SPOF (80% governance, emergency proposals bypass process). Net inflationary ~4.4%/yr at current rates. Revenue $246M net but SKY captures only $97M (holders rev). TVL declining. NOT MiCA-compliant (Jul 2026 deadline). $756M USDC in unverifiable EOA. 35% of USDS is just wrapped USDC. All financials self-reported by Sky Foundation.
How much SKY supply is still to enter circulation?
99.7% of eventual SKY supply is circulating today, leaving 1x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 0.3% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is SKY from its all-time high?
SKY trades 43.8% below its all-time high of $0.1005. Returning to that high requires a 1.8x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to SKY?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to SKY are WSTETH (185), CBETH (158), CRV (140) and MKR (177). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for SKY?
Buyback restoration ~Nov 2026 when Solvency Reserve hits $125M (currently $70.6M). Revenue still growing (Q1 record $61M net). SSR cut improves margins. Remaining 3 Stars. S&P upgrade path. Obex Cohort 2.

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.