Celestia (TIA)
Modular DA layer with strong VC backing and developer traction; only 22% circulating means severe multi-year open dilution ahead.
Ranked 68th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
TIA scores 120 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 68th of 251 rated tokens and inside the upper half of the set. The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
TIA is a top-10 name in the set on one variable. The score rests on Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 5/10, 13th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251.
Against the same universe, TIA sits in the bottom third on Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251, Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 81.1% of TIA's total supply is in circulation, so 1.23x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 18.9% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.
TIA trades 98.4% below its all-time high of $20.85. Recovering that level is a 62.5x move, not a 98.4% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
The framework score gained 30 points against the previous pass (90 to 120). Revisions of this size follow a change in the underlying variables, not a change in price.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 3 | 98th of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 3 | 182nd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 6 | 17th of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 6 | 43rd of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 1 | 244th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 7 | 46th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 1 | 205th of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 3 | 201st of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 3 | 197th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 4 | 65th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 4 | 91st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 6 | 32nd of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 5 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 5 | 57th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 5 | 36th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 6 | 37th of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 6 | 23rd of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 6 | 52nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 5 | 50th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 5 | 13th of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 6 | 30th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 7 | 11th of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Next catalyst
Modular blockchain thesis gaining ground; TIA staking and DA fee revenue from rollups growing
Principal risk
Only 22% supply circulating; enormous investor/team releases through 2027; DA revenue thin; competing with EigenDA and Avail for mindshare
Market and supply
| Price | $0.3312 |
| Market cap | $315.2Mrank 121 |
| All-time high | $20.8510 Feb 2024 |
| Circulating supply | 952,129,321 |
| Eventual supply (total supply) | 1,174,348,171 |
| Dilution to full supply | 1.23x |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Coinbase, Bybit |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to TIA measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [Celestia Blog] Celestia raised $55M from Bain Capital, Polychain, Placeholder; launched mainnet October 2023
- [Messari] TIA has only 22% of supply circulating with large team and investor releases continuing through 2027
- [CoinGecko] TIA ATH $21.08 reached January 2024 on modular blockchain narrative peak
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Celestia (TIA)?
- TIA scores 120 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 68th of 251 rated tokens (upper half). The framework verdict is CAUTIOUS HOLD.
- What are TIA's strongest fundamentals?
- TIA ranks highest on Developer Activity 7/10, 9th of 251, Treasury Runway 7/10, 11th of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 5/10, 13th of 251 and Real Staking Yield 6/10, 17th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the TIA thesis?
- TIA scores in the bottom third of the universe on Vesting Schedule 1/10, 244th of 251, Buyback and Burn 1/10, 205th of 251, Insider Selling 3/10, 201st of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Only 22% supply circulating; enormous investor/team releases through 2027; DA revenue thin; competing with EigenDA and Avail for mindshare
- How much TIA supply is still to enter circulation?
- 81.1% of eventual TIA supply is circulating today, leaving 1.23x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 18.9% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is TIA from its all-time high?
- TIA trades 98.4% below its all-time high of $20.85. Returning to that high requires a 62.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to TIA?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to TIA are OM (108), PYTH (107), ICP (102) and MINA (98). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What is the next catalyst for TIA?
- Modular blockchain thesis gaining ground; TIA staking and DA fee revenue from rollups growing
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.