Jupiter (JUP)
S39 VALIDATED: Solana's DeFi superapp. 93.6% aggregator share, $2.9B TVL. Revenue declining -78% but net-zero emissions + vesting done.
Ranked 19th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
JUP scores 151 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 19th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.
JUP is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Network Growth 9/10, 1st of 251, Active Users 8/10, 1st of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 7/10, 3rd of 251 and Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251.
Against the same universe, JUP sits in the bottom third on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.
Only 33.2% of JUP's maximum supply is in circulation, so 3.01x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 66.8% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.
JUP trades 90.9% below its all-time high of $2.00. Recovering that level is a 11x move, not a 90.9% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.
$2.94B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.
25-variable breakdown
Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.
Cash flow
| Protocol Revenue | 6 | 21st of 251 | |
| Revenue Trend | 4 | 71st of 251 | |
| P/S Multiple | 6 | 23rd of 251 | |
| Real Staking Yield | 4 | 82nd of 251 |
Supply
| Supply Inflation | 6 | 43rd of 251 | |
| Vesting Schedule | 7 | 35th of 251 | |
| Circulating / FDV Ratio | 3 | 225th of 251 | |
| Buyback and Burn | 3 | 63rd of 251 |
Ownership
| Smart Money Flows | 6 | 26th of 251 | |
| Insider Selling | 7 | 8th of 251 | |
| Holder Concentration | 3 | 197th of 251 |
Traction
| TVL Trend | 7 | 11th of 251 | |
| Active Users | 8 | 1st of 251 | |
| Developer Activity | 7 | 9th of 251 | |
| Network Growth | 9 | 1st of 251 |
Position
| Market Share | 8 | 4th of 251 | |
| Competitive Moat | 8 | 5th of 251 | |
| Institutional Adoption | 5 | 36th of 251 | |
| Exchange Depth | 5 | 73rd of 251 | |
| Social Mindshare | 7 | 11th of 251 |
Risk
| Regulatory Safety | 5 | 102nd of 251 | |
| Catalyst Calendar | 7 | 15th of 251 | |
| BTC Alpha Potential | 7 | 3rd of 251 | |
| Team Execution | 7 | 12th of 251 | |
| Treasury Runway | 6 | 33rd of 251 |
The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.
Catalyst and risk
Catalyst on the scorecard
Net-zero emissions (Feb 2026), Securitize onchain equities LIVE, Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, Jupnet omnichain (testnet)
The Feb 2026 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 11 Jun 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Principal risk
Revenue -78% ($580M→$129M), buyback HALTED ($70M failed), LIBRA scandal, 72% whale concentration, Jupnet testnet only
Market and supply
| Price | $0.1829 |
| Market cap | $607.7Mrank 88 |
| All-time high | $2.0031 Jan 2024 |
| Circulating supply | 3,320,312,968 |
| Eventual supply (max supply) | 10,000,000,000 |
| Dilution to full supply | 3.01x |
| Total value locked | $2.94B |
| Listed on | Binance, OKX, Bybit |
Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.
Tokens with a similar profile
These are the closest matches to JUP measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.
Sources
- [CoinGecko] ATH $2.04 on Jan 31, 2024 (not $1.85)
- [DeFiLlama] $129M annualized protocol revenue (down from $580M in 2025)
- [Token Terminal] Revenue declining: $580M (2025) → $129M run-rate (Q2 2026)
- [SolanaFloor] 93.6% aggregator market share on Solanalink dead, claim unverified
- [Crypto.news] $70M buyback spent, price fell 89%, program HALTED
- [SolanaFloor] Net-zero emissions passed Feb 2026, all vesting complete Jan 27 2026
- [CoinMarketCap] 3B token burn Jan 2025 (10B → 7B supply)
- [Blocmates] Jupnet omnichain is TESTNET only, zero live volume
- [DeFiLlama] Jupiter Perps: $72M OI, $624M JLP TVL, 19.8% APY
- [PRNewswire] Securitize + Jump onchain equities LIVE May 5, 2026
- [DeFiLlama] Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, #2 Solana lending, launched Aug 2025
- [Blockonomi] LIBRA scandal: Ben Chow resigned, Fenwick investigation
One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.
Common questions
- What is the Early Thunder score for Jupiter (JUP)?
- JUP scores 151 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 19th of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
- What are JUP's strongest fundamentals?
- JUP ranks highest on Network Growth 9/10, 1st of 251, Active Users 8/10, 1st of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 7/10, 3rd of 251 and Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
- What are the weakest parts of the JUP thesis?
- JUP scores in the bottom third of the universe on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Revenue -78% ($580M→$129M), buyback HALTED ($70M failed), LIBRA scandal, 72% whale concentration, Jupnet testnet only
- How much JUP supply is still to enter circulation?
- 33.2% of eventual JUP supply is circulating today, leaving 3.01x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 66.8% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
- How far is JUP from its all-time high?
- JUP trades 90.9% below its all-time high of $2.00. Returning to that high requires a 11x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
- Which tokens have a similar profile to JUP?
- Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to JUP are ORCA (123), TNSR (112), KMNO (138) and SAFE (132). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
- What catalyst was JUP scored against?
- Net-zero emissions (Feb 2026), Securitize onchain equities LIVE, Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, Jupnet omnichain (testnet) This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Feb 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.
Keep reading
Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.