HOLD

Jupiter (JUP)

S39 VALIDATED: Solana's DeFi superapp. 93.6% aggregator share, $2.9B TVL. Revenue declining -78% but net-zero emissions + vesting done.

Ranked 19th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score
151/250
19th of 251
Percentile
92.8%
of the rated universe
Circulating
33.2%
66.8% of value still to vest
Off all-time high
-90.9%
11x to recover
SolanaSPL+1 since last pass
01

What the numbers say

JUP scores 151 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 19th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 10% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.

JUP is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Network Growth 9/10, 1st of 251, Active Users 8/10, 1st of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 7/10, 3rd of 251 and Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251.

Against the same universe, JUP sits in the bottom third on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. These are the variables that would have to move for the verdict to change.

Only 33.2% of JUP's maximum supply is in circulation, so 3.01x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 66.8% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a heavy overhang: most of the eventual supply has not reached the market yet.

JUP trades 90.9% below its all-time high of $2.00. Recovering that level is a 11x move, not a 90.9% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

$2.94B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

02

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue
621st of 251
Revenue Trend
471st of 251
P/S Multiple
623rd of 251
Real Staking Yield
482nd of 251

Supply

Supply variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation
643rd of 251
Vesting Schedule
735th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio
3225th of 251
Buyback and Burn
363rd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows
626th of 251
Insider Selling
78th of 251
Holder Concentration
3197th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend
711th of 251
Active Users
81st of 251
Developer Activity
79th of 251
Network Growth
91st of 251

Position

Position variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share
84th of 251
Competitive Moat
85th of 251
Institutional Adoption
536th of 251
Exchange Depth
573rd of 251
Social Mindshare
711th of 251

Risk

Risk variables for JUP, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety
5102nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar
715th of 251
BTC Alpha Potential
73rd of 251
Team Execution
712th of 251
Treasury Runway
633rd of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

03

Catalyst and risk

Catalyst on the scorecard

Net-zero emissions (Feb 2026), Securitize onchain equities LIVE, Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, Jupnet omnichain (testnet)

The Feb 2026 item has already passed. This was written as forward-looking at the 11 Jun 2026 scoring pass, so read those parts as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Principal risk

Revenue -78% ($580M→$129M), buyback HALTED ($70M failed), LIBRA scandal, 72% whale concentration, Jupnet testnet only

04

Market and supply

Price$0.1829
Market cap$607.7Mrank 88
All-time high$2.0031 Jan 2024
Circulating supply3,320,312,968
Eventual supply (max supply)10,000,000,000
Dilution to full supply3.01x
Total value locked$2.94B
Listed onBinance, OKX, Bybit

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

05

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to JUP measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

06

Sources

  • [CoinGecko] ATH $2.04 on Jan 31, 2024 (not $1.85)
  • [DeFiLlama] $129M annualized protocol revenue (down from $580M in 2025)
  • [Token Terminal] Revenue declining: $580M (2025) → $129M run-rate (Q2 2026)
  • [SolanaFloor] 93.6% aggregator market share on Solanalink dead, claim unverified
  • [Crypto.news] $70M buyback spent, price fell 89%, program HALTED
  • [SolanaFloor] Net-zero emissions passed Feb 2026, all vesting complete Jan 27 2026
  • [CoinMarketCap] 3B token burn Jan 2025 (10B → 7B supply)
  • [Blocmates] Jupnet omnichain is TESTNET only, zero live volume
  • [DeFiLlama] Jupiter Perps: $72M OI, $624M JLP TVL, 19.8% APY
  • [PRNewswire] Securitize + Jump onchain equities LIVE May 5, 2026
  • [DeFiLlama] Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, #2 Solana lending, launched Aug 2025
  • [Blockonomi] LIBRA scandal: Ben Chow resigned, Fenwick investigation

One source link above no longer resolves, so we stripped the hyperlink rather than leave something that looks like evidence until you click it. The claims stay visible because they are part of the research record, but treat them as unverified. Every link was rechecked 6 Aug 2026.

07

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Jupiter (JUP)?
JUP scores 151 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 19th of 251 rated tokens (top 10%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
What are JUP's strongest fundamentals?
JUP ranks highest on Network Growth 9/10, 1st of 251, Active Users 8/10, 1st of 251, BTC Alpha Potential 7/10, 3rd of 251 and Market Share 8/10, 4th of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
What are the weakest parts of the JUP thesis?
JUP scores in the bottom third of the universe on Circulating / FDV Ratio 3/10, 225th of 251 and Holder Concentration 3/10, 197th of 251. The single risk carried on the scorecard is: Revenue -78% ($580M→$129M), buyback HALTED ($70M failed), LIBRA scandal, 72% whale concentration, Jupnet testnet only
How much JUP supply is still to enter circulation?
33.2% of eventual JUP supply is circulating today, leaving 3.01x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 66.8% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is JUP from its all-time high?
JUP trades 90.9% below its all-time high of $2.00. Returning to that high requires a 11x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to JUP?
Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to JUP are ORCA (123), TNSR (112), KMNO (138) and SAFE (132). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What catalyst was JUP scored against?
Net-zero emissions (Feb 2026), Securitize onchain equities LIVE, Jupiter Lend $2B+ TVL, Jupnet omnichain (testnet) This was written as forward-looking when the scoring pass ran. The Feb 2026 item has since passed, so read that part as history. Anything else listed may still be ahead.

Keep reading

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.