What is the Early Thunder score for Pendle Finance (PENDLE)?

PENDLE scores 160 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 13th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD.

How much PENDLE supply is still to enter circulation?

61.1% of eventual PENDLE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.64x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 38.9% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.

How far is PENDLE from its all-time high?

PENDLE trades 81.7% below its all-time high of $7.50. Returning to that high requires a 5.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.

Which tokens have a similar profile to PENDLE?

Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to PENDLE are AAVE (156), ETH (187), UNI (167) and COW (167). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.

HOLD

Pendle Finance (PENDLE)

Name: Pendle Finance (PENDLE) 25-variable fundamental scorecard
Creator: Early Thunder

DeFi's yield monopoly: 50-60% market share, $24.4M trailing rev, sPENDLE 80% buyback (9.3% yield). Fortune 2026 Innovators. Vietnam IFC w/ BlackRock/MS. 21Shares ETP live. Boros V3 $10B+ vol. All vesting complete. Net dollar-deflationary.

Ranked 13th of 251 rated tokens. Scoring pass 11 Jun 2026.

Score

160/250

13th of 251

Percentile

95.2%

of the rated universe

Circulating

61.1%

38.9% of value still to vest

Off all-time high

-81.7%

5.5x to recover

EthereumERC-20+4 since last pass

What the numbers say

PENDLE scores 160 of 250 across the 25-variable framework, which places it 13th of 251 rated tokens and inside the top 5% of the set. The framework verdict is HOLD.

PENDLE is a top-10 name in the set on 4 variables. The score rests on Buyback and Burn 9/10, 2nd of 251, Market Share 9/10, 2nd of 251, Competitive Moat 9/10, 2nd of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251.

Only 61.1% of PENDLE's total supply is in circulation, so 1.64x the current float is still scheduled to arrive. Holding price per token flat while the rest enters circulation implies 38.9% of the fully diluted value sitting ahead of today's holders. That is a real but manageable overhang.

PENDLE trades 81.7% below its all-time high of $7.50. Recovering that level is a 5.5x move, not a 81.7% one, which is the arithmetic most drawdown charts hide.

$1.17B sits in the protocol. The token is capitalised below the value locked in the protocol.

25-variable breakdown

Each variable is scored 1 to 10 and ranked against every other rated token, so a 7 that ranks 20th means something different from a 7 that ranks 180th. The rank is the part that is hard to get anywhere else.

Cash flow

Cash flow variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Protocol Revenue	6	21st of 251
Revenue Trend	3	117th of 251
P/S Multiple	5	38th of 251
Real Staking Yield	7	5th of 251

Supply

Supply variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Supply Inflation	8	8th of 251
Vesting Schedule	9	8th of 251
Circulating / FDV Ratio	6	88th of 251
Buyback and Burn	9	2nd of 251

Ownership

Ownership variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Smart Money Flows	6	26th of 251
Insider Selling	4	151st of 251
Holder Concentration	5	10th of 251

Traction

Traction variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
TVL Trend	4	65th of 251
Active Users	4	91st of 251
Developer Activity	6	33rd of 251
Network Growth	7	12th of 251

Position

Position variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Market Share	9	2nd of 251
Competitive Moat	9	2nd of 251
Institutional Adoption	9	5th of 251
Exchange Depth	7	12th of 251
Social Mindshare	5	41st of 251

Risk

Risk variables for PENDLE, scored 1 to 10 and ranked against 251 tokens
Regulatory Safety	6	52nd of 251
Catalyst Calendar	8	3rd of 251
BTC Alpha Potential	3	114th of 251
Team Execution	8	3rd of 251
Treasury Runway	7	11th of 251

The vertical tick on each bar marks the median score across all 251 rated tokens, so a bar ending left of the tick is below the universe on that variable.

Catalyst and risk

Next catalyst

Solana/Hyperliquid/TON chain expansion, Fortune 2026 list, Vietnam IFC delegation, 21Shares ETP (APEN) on SIX, Boros funding rate scaling, KYC Citadels + Shariah, one-click leveraged PTs, RWA $151M growing

Principal risk

Revenue collapsed 87.6% from peak ($4.44M/mo→$552K/mo). TVL -91% from $13.4B. No max supply cap (perpetual 2% inflation). Team holds 15% circ (25.59M), consistently selling ($9.76M cumulative). Ethena 50-75% TVL concentration. Hayes partially exited.

Market and supply

Price	$1.37
Market cap	$235.7Mrank 145
All-time high	$7.5011 Apr 2024
Circulating supply	172,071,895
Eventual supply (total supply)	281,527,448
Dilution to full supply	1.64x
Total value locked	$1.17B
Listed on	Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, MEXC, KuCoin

Price, market cap, supply and all-time high from CoinGecko, fetched 6 Aug 2026. The 25 scores come from the research pass dated 11 Jun 2026 and don't move with price.

Tokens with a similar profile

These are the closest matches to PENDLE measured on the shape of all 25 variables after removing overall quality, so what they share is a pattern of strengths and weaknesses rather than a similar size or price.

AAVE156/250

Aave

HOLD · profile match 48%

ETH187/250

Ethereum

HOLD CORE · profile match 46%

UNI167/250

Uniswap

HOLD · profile match 43%

COW167/250

CoW Protocol

HOLD · profile match 43%

FLUID145/250

Fluid (Instadapp)

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 41%

AVAX138/250

Avalanche

CAUTIOUS HOLD · profile match 40%

Sources

[DeFiLlama] TVL $1.171B across 11 chains (ETH $796M, Plasma $195M, Arb $139M, HyperL1 $25M, BSC $11M)
[DeFiLlama / Token Terminal] 30d revenue $896,892. 30d fees $914,957. Annualized trailing $24.4M. 2025 full-year $44.6M (+134% YoY)
[CoinDesk / BanklessTimes] sPENDLE launched Jan 20, 2026. 80% revenue to PENDLE buybacks. 14-day unstake. Replaced 2-year vePENDLE locks
[Fortune] Fortune Crypto Innovators 2026 list (Jun 11), among 30 leading projects globally
[CryptoBriefing / Benzinga] Vietnam IFC delegation (Mar 2026): TN Lee alongside BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Franklin Templeton
[Bitget / Phemex] Boros V3: $10B+ cumulative notional volume (Feb 2026, 2.7x faster than V2). $250M peak OI. $2.9B monthly volume
[CoinLaw] 21Shares Pendle ETP (APEN) live on SIX Swiss Exchange. Regulated PENDLE exposure for European investors
[Blockchain News / BitcoinWorld] Team deposited 600K PENDLE to Binance May 13, 2026 ($1.27M). Cumulative $9.76M sold. 25.59M remaining (15% circ)
[BeInCrypto / BlockchainReporter] Arthur Hayes: accumulated ~$1.7M in PENDLE. Then transferred 950K PENDLE ($1.14M) to exchange Feb 2026
[AInvest / EarnPark] KYC Citadels: regulated access via isolated SPVs. Shariah-Compliant Citadel targeting $4.5T Islamic finance
[Bitget] RWA TVL $151M across USDY, USYC, USDG (Paxos), apxUSD, apyUSD. Growing over 8 months
[Pendle Docs / OAK Research] Terminal 2% inflation active since Apr 2026. ~3.42M PENDLE/yr. Algorithmic emissions cut ~30% vs gauge voting

Common questions

What is the Early Thunder score for Pendle Finance (PENDLE)?: PENDLE scores 160 out of 250 on the 25-variable framework, ranking 13th of 251 rated tokens (top 5%). The framework verdict is HOLD.
What are PENDLE's strongest fundamentals?: PENDLE ranks highest on Buyback and Burn 9/10, 2nd of 251, Market Share 9/10, 2nd of 251, Competitive Moat 9/10, 2nd of 251 and Catalyst Calendar 8/10, 3rd of 251. Ranks are measured against all 251 tokens in the same scoring pass.
How much PENDLE supply is still to enter circulation?: 61.1% of eventual PENDLE supply is circulating today, leaving 1.64x the current float still to arrive. At a flat price per token that is 38.9% of fully diluted value ahead of current holders.
How far is PENDLE from its all-time high?: PENDLE trades 81.7% below its all-time high of $7.50. Returning to that high requires a 5.5x move from the level used in this scoring pass.
Which tokens have a similar profile to PENDLE?: Measured on the shape of all 25 scored variables rather than on price, the closest matches to PENDLE are AAVE (156), ETH (187), UNI (167) and COW (167). Similarity here means the same pattern of strengths and weaknesses, not a similar market cap.
What is the next catalyst for PENDLE?: Solana/Hyperliquid/TON chain expansion, Fortune 2026 list, Vietnam IFC delegation, 21Shares ETP (APEN) on SIX, Boros funding rate scaling, KYC Citadels + Shariah, one-click leveraged PTs, RWA $151M growing

Keep reading

Pendle Finance full research noteOn-chain detail, team, tokenomics, competitive position and the standing verdict.Every token rated HOLDThe full band ranked by score, with what the group is collectively strong and weak on.All 251 rated tokensThe full ranking table and the method behind the 25 variables.

Research and analysis, not investment advice. Scores are one framework applied consistently across 251 tokens, not a prediction of price.